Plans to increase EU spending to help Ukraine defend against Russian aggression have stalled due to the bloc’s reluctance to provide more funds. The head of the EU’s foreign policy department, Josep Borrell, remains optimistic and believes that member states must mobilize their industrial enterprises so that the EU fulfills its commitment to supply Ukraine with one million shells by spring next year, reports the European Newsroom media platform in an insightful article cited by Agerpres.

The EU may not achieve its goal of supplying Ukraine with one million artillery shells and missiles during the year ending in March 2024. This is despite efforts to increase production capacity and contracts with the arms industry. During a meeting of EU defense ministers on Tuesday, European officials upped the military support they have offered and promised to protect Ukraine from a Russian invasion.

“The target of 1 million will not be reached, we have to accept that,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. The voices that warned from the beginning that the goal was unrealistic are now, unfortunately, right, he said.

The Union’s difficulty in meeting promised supplies comes at a time when opposition in the US Congress has questioned Washington’s ability to keep up supplies. The pessimistic assessment also comes at a bleak time for Ukraine, after its counteroffensive failed to recapture territory and Israel’s war against Hamas appears to have distracted its main allies.

Earlier, the EU countries decided to supply Ukraine with a million shells, which the country desperately needs to protect itself from Russia. So far, EU countries have managed to supply only 300,000 of the available stocks.

New aid at the EU level appears controversial

While most EU member states are ready to support Ukraine in the long term, some countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, are reluctant to make new financial commitments to Kyiv, delaying negotiations on the EU initiative.

In July, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, proposed a new defense fund of 20 billion euros over the next four years to cover the cost of arms supplies to Ukraine. The plan was part of a broader commitment by the G7 to provide Kyiv with long-term security commitments to help it counter Russian aggression.

Getting the 27 EU member states to agree on new aid to Kyiv has become more difficult, as additional financial support for Ukraine was linked to a legislative proposal to overhaul the EU’s long-term budget. The commission recently asked 27 states to contribute an extra €66 billion to the general budget, angering some national governments facing stagnant economies and tight budgets at home.

Germany, which announced last week that it will double its own financing of Ukraine to 8 billion euros next year, does not want to add new funds to the EU coffers. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the money available should be put to better use before asking for more contributions from EU members.

Hungary, Russia’s closest ally in the bloc, expressed skepticism about the plan. Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban said that he is not ready to agree to the allocation of new funds to Ukraine.

The new government of Slovakia, headed by Robert Fico, will no longer provide military aid to Ukraine at the state level. However, it will respect contracts for the supply of arms to Ukraine concluded by private companies from Slovakia, Slovakia’s Minister of Foreign and European Affairs Juraj Blanar said on Monday in Brussels. Last week, the government blocked a 40.3 million euro military aid package to Ukraine planned by the previous administration.

The readiness of Europe to help Ukraine remains obvious

While plans to spend more money to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia are under increasing pressure, Europe’s willingness to support the country and its people – through financial, military or other aid – has not completely diminished.

Regardless of his position on military aid at the state level, the head of the Slovak Foreign Ministry emphasized that Slovakia wants to help Ukrainians in the coming winter with humanitarian aid and demining. Slovakia also supports Ukraine’s aspirations to become a member of the EU.

A new European F-16 training center was inaugurated this week in Romania, which will train mainly Romanian pilots, but will also be open to allied and partner countries, including Ukraine. Under the terms agreed upon to open the center, Romania will provide a military base for training, the Netherlands will provide aircraft, and US defense company Lockheed Martin will provide instructors and maintenance. Ukraine is expected to begin receiving F-16s from some of its Western allies in 2024.

According to Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev, Bulgaria guarantees its own security by helping Ukraine. Aid to Ukraine, even minimal, is worth it, the minister emphasized after the decision of the Parliament of Bulgaria on September 27 to approve the resolution on providing additional military aid to Ukraine. Tagarev told Bulgarian journalists in Brussels on Tuesday that the war in Ukraine is likely to continue and EU member states will have to rebuild their military stockpiles, meaning Bulgarian industry will receive orders.

The Minister of Defense of North Macedonia, Slavyanka Petrovska, said in a televised speech on November 6 that a new request for additional military assistance has been received from Ukraine, which is currently being considered by the General Staff of the Army. “If we receive a positive conclusion, I will immediately forward the request to the government, and it will be accepted,” Petrovska said, adding that the request from Ukraine is confidential.

Albania has joined the EU sanctions package against Russia in response to the war in Ukraine. Albania is also a member of the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which is represented by Defense Minister Niko Peleshi. UDCG is a US-led initiative that brings together allies and partners from around the world to discuss cooperation and security issues related to Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Borrell and Breton: the industry’s potential exists

As for the promised munitions, European Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton assured the bloc’s defense ministers on Tuesday that Brussels’ plans to encourage arms companies prepared them to produce the agreed amount. He also said he was confident the unit would be able to meet its goal of producing “over a million” shells by next spring.

“The industry has the capacity to produce a million shells a year, but that does not mean we will have a million ready by March,” Josep Borrell commented, adding that “member countries have to place orders for such production.” In any case, he said the “political goal” of reaching one million is “ambitious” but “we continue to make efforts in this direction.”

Borrell said the main problem is that European defense firms export about 40% of their production to other countries. He called on the member states to make the export of ammunition to Ukraine a priority in order to deliver larger volumes faster. The question, Borrell said, is whether the countries that ultimately have to send the material to Kyiv will organize themselves to order production in time.

The EU’s foreign policy chief said member states had placed a joint order for an additional 180,000 155mm rounds, but that number would not be delivered until the end of next year.

Borrell said he would brief European leaders on his work with Ukrainian authorities to secure long-term security guarantees and that he would present a new proposal for security commitments and military aid to Ukraine in December.

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