The head of the intelligence service of the Estonian army, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, in an interview with RBC Ukraine, says that another hard winter awaits Ukrainians and that Russia is withdrawing troops in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the east of the country.

Kiviselg did not directly answer Ukrainian journalists’ questions about the stalemate in Kyiv’s summer offensive, but reminded that Russia had plenty of time to strengthen its defensive lines and has air superiority in some areas of the front.

“That is why it is difficult for Ukraine to liberate Crimea and isolate the Russians from certain territories,” he said, adding, however, that strikes by Ukrainian forces behind the front line put pressure on the logistics system of Russian troops.

“And we know that with the amount of artillery that the Russians are using, they need logistics. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are doing a great job in this regard,” the Estonian colonel noted.

RBC Ukraine reminds that the Baltic countries were the first to provide all kinds of assistance to Ukraine immediately after the start of the large-scale invasion of Russia. “In Estonian political circles, the explanation is simple: they have a border with Russia and understand potential threats from the future,” RBC notes.

As for the Russian army, Kiviselg says it is “more opportunistic.” “If there is a chance to capture more territory, they (the Russians) will take advantage of it,” said the Estonian colonel.

“But for now we see that the Russians are concentrating a large number of their forces in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. I also want to note that the winter will be difficult for Ukrainians. Russia will continue to attack civilian and critical infrastructure to deprive Ukrainians of electricity,” he explained.

Estonia’s head of military intelligence says Russia did not lose “very few” fighter jets

When asked about the number of weapons that the Russian army has, Kiviselg answered that before the start of the war, it could count on 9,000 tanks and 36,000 units of armored vehicles.

“Even if you take into account the fact that their equipment is outdated and they can properly equip only one in three units, this is still a huge number: 3 thousand tanks and 12 thousand armored vehicles,” said the colonel, without going into details of the current capabilities. of the Russian army.

Instead, he noted that Russia can currently produce about 1.5 million artillery shells each month, and that production is increasing because Russia’s economy has become a war economy.

“But it does not include, for example, ballistic missiles. They cannot produce ballistic missiles in such quantities,” Kiviselg said. In addition, “there are problems with their artillery systems. They are trying to replace them, but this is a challenge for Russia,” he added.

Despite some spectacular strikes by the Ukrainian military on Russian aircraft, Kiviselg says Russia has lost “very few fighter jets.”

The Ukrainian military says it has shot down a total of 322 Russian warplanes since the start of the war, while the independent site Oryx confirmed 93 losses.

According to the Estonian officer, Putin does not believe that small countries should have “their own will”.

In this regard, the head of military intelligence of Estonia warned that, despite the fact that they did not manage to achieve air dominance over Ukraine, the Russian air force (or “aerospace”, as Moscow calls it) still has enough capabilities and in some areas of the front, they are effective against Ukrainian troops.

When asked by Ukrainian journalists about President Vladimir Putin’s long-term plans, Kiviselg recalled the “immediate negotiations” with the West that the Kremlin leader called for in December 2021 regarding “Russia’s security”, three days before the Russian Foreign Ministry formulated the famous list of demands Moscow for the withdrawal of NATO from the countries of Eastern Europe.

“He wants NATO to stop its expansion and return to the borders of 1997. We see no change in his plans. So, yes. I think he wants to create a new security architecture in Europe. Russia wants to expand its sphere of influence,” Kiviselg said.

“In Russia’s opinion, smaller countries should not have a will of their own and should not have the right to say what they want. It goes against Western values, so we (non-Estonians) oppose it. There is no scenario under which we would like to live like Russia,” the Estonian officer emphasized.

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