Symbolic gains, numerous potential targets that stand in the way: the counteroffensive in Kyiv has revealed its secrets, the less Ukrainian brigades remain in the shadows, ready to exploit the smallest breach in the Russian defense, reports La Libre, which is cited by Radar.

The Kyiv army is on the offensive in the east and south of the country and declares that it is “advancing” when the enemy taunts it about “catastrophic” losses. “We are clearly seeing a lot of tactical manipulation operations and we can expect more (…) as the campaign progresses,” Dylan Lee Lark, an analyst at Janes, a private British intelligence agency, told AFP. “That’s one of the main advantages of the attack: you can time it and position it to your advantage to keep your opponent guessing.”

Information from open sources indicates that Kyiv is far from throwing all its forces into battle.

It maintains 13 mechanized brigades, two armored brigades and three assault brigades outside the front line, or 15 percent of its army of about 3,000 men, according to Pierre Razou, academic director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES).

Forces “ready to rush to a possible breakthrough,” he explains. Hence the increase in minor attacks designed to test Russian resistance.

But the struggle will be difficult: “all combat units – infantry, reconnaissance, armored, mechanized, landing – 75 brigades for Ukrainians, 65 for Russians in Ukraine and near the border,” the expert notes. “The difference is not great.”

Therefore, the main attack is still being prepared. And the ultimate goal is a secret.

Ivan Klysh, a researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Estonia, believes that it is likely that Kyiv will target cities such as Melitopol and Tokmak (in the south) or even Luhansk (in the east). “Operation centers under Russian occupation like these could be key targets,” he told AFP.

Others mention Crimea, occupied by Russia since 2014, and of course Donbas in the east, which today is largely controlled by the Russian army. Politically important and militarily very ambitious goals.

“They can take Crimea, but it’s not worth it militarily, and it would hurt the main effort,” said Alexander Greenberg of the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy (JISS). “The declared goal is the liberation of Donbas. But what are the operational plans? It is impossible to know.”

The northern option looks unlikely. There remains the south and the exit to the strategic region of the Sea of ​​Azov, today blocked by Moscow.

“The restoration of the territories of Donbass has political and symbolic significance, but it has no strategic benefit from a military point of view,” assures Pierre Razou.

“If, on the other hand, the goal is to get as many Russian troops as possible into that sector before heading south and launching an offensive toward the Sea of ​​Azov, that makes sense,” he added. “By regaining control over part of the Sea of ​​Azov, they could isolate Crimea and put 80 percent of Russia’s maritime trade at risk.”

But the Russian troops had been preparing for the enemy’s offensive for months. The defense line stretches for more than 800 kilometers, sometimes echeloned several levels deep, with a large number of soldiers.

“Russia’s defense is organized in layers. It’s not difficult: the opponent has to overcome these obstacles one by one,” notes Oleksandr Grinberg. “The Ukrainians can penetrate, but they cannot bring down this mass of Russian units.”

The Soufan Center, which specializes in security issues and is located in New York, is also cautious. “The window of success for Ukraine’s counteroffensive is limited at best,” he wrote in an analysis on Wednesday, assessing that “the coming months (will) predict the future of the conflict.”

Because after 16 months of war, President Volodymyr Zelensky, under the infusion of Western military aid, must demonstrate the ability to fight back against Moscow.

Kyiv “wants a significant victory in order to demonstrate its combat capability both to the population and to Western partners,” suggests Ivan Klyshsh. Ukrainians “want to liberate all occupied territories as soon as possible.”

However, failure will force the West to “continue to support Ukraine at the current level of military aid,” notes the Soufan Center.

“The Kremlin’s strategy is to buy time, wear out the opponent and hope for the election of Donald Trump in November 2024 (in the USA), because he is not interested in Ukraine. Hoping that the tired Europeans will be divided on the continuation of the conflict”, concludes Pierre Razou, reports La Libre (Rador).