What many had feared for months became a reality in the early hours of Monday to Tuesday in a divided between Russian and Ukrainian troops its area Peninsula. The huge Novokakhovskaya hydroelectric dam on the Dnieper River, right on the dividing line between the warring parties, partially collapsed, releasing 18 cubic kilometers of water, which flooded the surrounding territories up to 11 meters high.

The scale of the ecological and economic devastation is yet to be seen in the next twenty-four hours. The worst-case scenario would be to confirm fears that Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporozhye, to the north, is partially cooling its reactors thanks to water from Nova Kakhovka, although the relevant agency UN she looked pretty reassuring. In any case, the flooding of the river separating the two camps has complicated the picture of the war at a critical moment: according to US officials cited by The New York Times, since Sunday it began in complete secrecy and without spectacular results so far, the long-awaited Ukrainian counterattack .

President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky accused the Russians of a “terrorist act”, claiming they blew up the dam structures at 2:50 am. to make it harder for a Ukrainian counterattack. Kyiv’s version was quickly adopted by British Foreign Secretary James Cleverley, stressing that “a deliberate attack on purely civilian infrastructure is a war crime.” But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also assessed that “by all indications, this is an attack by the Russian side in order to stop the Ukrainian counterattack.”

Large-scale flooding in Kherson complicates the map of the operation two days after the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

While these accusations have their own logic, there is no shortage of counterarguments. Military analysts in the international media admit that Dnieper road – either from this or from another dam, or through islets and landing operations – is extremely dangerous for Ukrainian troops. In the seven months after the capture of Kherson on the western bank of the river, the Ukrainians tried several times, but were unable to cross to the eastern bank.

Will they try to do it now with more intensity? For at least the first three days their operations were limited to the eastern province. Donetsk and less in Zaporozhye. In any case, the Russians had mined the dam long ago and could blow it up whenever they wanted, in a pinch. Why should they do this before a serious enemy movement occurs, as a result of which not only the areas of Kherson occupied by them, but also the Crimean peninsula, which receives 85% of its water from the canal starting in Novaya, will be flooded? burden Kakhovka?

Predictably, the Kremlin denied the allegations, saying it was deliberate “sabotage” by Kyiv. In fact, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that the Ukrainians wanted, on the one hand, to make it difficult for Russia to advance on Kherson, and on the other hand, to hide the failure of their counterattack. Both claims are dubious: the preparation of the Russians for an offensive on Kherson at a time when they have to defend a front of 1000 km is unimaginable, and heralds the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which is at the very beginning, rather an identifier, her scene sounds premature, to say the least.

There is a third version, which is supported by experts such as the American scientist David Helms, according to which this dam suffered serious damage and lack of maintenance, its condition worsened during the 16 months of the war, and it is possible that it eventually collapsed on its own. However, yesterday’s catastrophe looks like a microcosm of this destructive and senseless war, a war without winners, where all political and moral barriers fall one after another, and where it is quite possible that the worst is yet to come. .