Bold or timid on the verge of political autocracy? Cause of Spain’s socialist prime minister Pedro Sanchez and his decision to go to the polls early after his faction’s heavy defeat in last Sunday’s local elections. The Spanish citizens will answer the question on July 23, but at first glance, the choice of a centre-left politician resembles a card player who insists on going against his fate, doubling after each lost round, waiting to cover the accumulated losses.

The shock for the ruling socialist party (PSOE) was painful. By Sunday, he controlled 10 of Spain’s 12 autonomous regions, where polling stations had been set up. As a result, he was left with only three of them, and the center-right People’s Party, serving as the official opposition, dominated the remaining nine. It should be noted that municipal elections in Spain carry significant political weight, since the autonomous regions elect local governments with broad powers, and their governors are often the main actors on the central political stage.

Like a referendum

Particularly this year, NP leader Alberto Nunez Feijo turned the competition into a referendum for or against Sanchez, supported by the socialist prime minister, who traveled to autonomous regions and spoke at campaign rallies in support of his candidates. A choice that probably backfired on him, as even generally successful governors or mayors of the PSOE could not be re-elected, with the most typical cases of Valencia and Seville.

Thus, PSOE performance was not discouraging. It fell just 1.2% from the previous local elections, trailing the PP by about three points, theoretically reversible. Nevertheless, an impressive nine-point rise in the official opposition has given it a momentum of victory that will be difficult to reverse in the next two months. Moreover, the overall picture of the confrontation highlights a clear shift of the social body to the right. While Sanchez’s main partner in government, the radical left Podemos, suffered a crushing defeat, including losing all ten of its deputies in the local parliament in Madrid, far-right Vox doubled its share to over 7%.

The PSOE fell just 1.2%, but the People’s Party’s impressive 9-point gain is creating momentum that’s hard to break.

We can say a little harm, since Vox has already managed to jump up to 15% in the 2019 parliamentary elections and become the third parliamentary force in Spain. However, the fact that he managed to be represented in a number of local parliaments where he did not exist until yesterday indicates that he is now rooted in local communities and that his upward momentum has not been exhausted. Vox leader Santiago Abascal has already proposed co-management with the NP, both at the level of autonomous regions and across the country. The possibility that dictator Franco nostalgic with the emblems and anthems of the fascist phalanx will enter the government of Spain, and the latter will preside over the European Union, may horrify democratic citizens, but is unlikely to be taken seriously. Brussels reaction. To the extent that Abascal does not question the financial discipline and cohesion of NATO, especially in Ukraine, the rest is forgiven – as Georgia Meloni was already forgiven in Italy.

End of an era

Last Sunday’s results mark the end of a historic cycle that began with the severe financial crisis of 2010, the Indignant Movement, the formation of the Podemos and the political earthquake in the 2015 elections. Then the two pillars of the traditional bipartisanship, the PP and the PSOE, collectively fell to 50%, while Podemos scored 21% in its first run-off, just one point behind the Socialists, while the other young party, the centrist Ciudadanos , scored 14%, gaining protest votes within the system block. Eight years later, bipartisanship is back in the spotlight: the PP has almost completely absorbed Ciudadano, and the PSOE dominates the centre-left political space.

Taking part in local elections, Pedro Sánchez staked on the effectiveness of his government in relation to the economy and labor. For the time in which we live, his account was not insignificant. His government raised the minimum wage by 47%, launched progressive changes in the labor market to reduce instability, and introduced, despite the resistance of Brussels, a cap on energy tariffs. Although they are the bane of the neoliberal orthodoxy, far from bringing disaster, these policies were accompanied by a significant reduction in unemployment and a drop in inflation to 4%, while the Spanish economy grew faster than the European average. In this light, Sanchez’s defeat (as well as Erdogan’s victory during Turkey’s severe economic crisis) forces us to reconsider the animosity inherited from the Clinton era: NOT ONLY the economy, dumbass! Against a hard right with a clear physiognomy and power strategy, Sanchez led from the start a patchy and fragile political coalition that had no chance of winning “identity wars” simply because he himself had no clear identity. The fact that the socialist prime minister was forced to rely on Catalan and Basque separatist parties, as well as on the scattered radical left (Podemos-born Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Diat formed her own Sumar movement), pushed the systemic voters of the Center into the arms of Verno.

How is Tapatero?

That being said, what could Sanchez hope for from this strange midsummer election? Perhaps some around him dream of a repeat of 2008, when his socialist predecessor, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, dissolved parliament after losing local elections and managed, to everyone’s surprise, to defeat the PP. However, given the size of this year’s electoral defeat and the general shift to the right, a repeat of 2008 seems like a midsummer night’s dream. To be sure, Sanchez will use the PP-Vox partnership at the local level (the People’s Party needs far-right votes to form governments in the six autonomous regions) to mobilize his base and stimulate the democratic reflexes of centrist voters. This may stop the exodus of PSOE voters and strengthen its hegemonic role among the centre-left, but is unlikely to prevent political change in Spain.