The atmosphere at her last cabinet meeting was melancholy. Türkiyewhich was convened last Wednesday under his chairmanship Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Ministers were advised that most of them would not continue in the same post or would take on a different portfolio.

Mr. Erdogan seems to want to start over and “renew” his government, also taking advantage of the law banning MPs from holding ministerial posts. Analysts believe that with this choice, the Turkish president will try to send a signal both inside and outside the country that, despite pre-election statements and tensions, he is now ready to be flexible in his policy and adjust his strategy.

Pasha economy

Within this framework, the choice of ministers is expected. The eventual choice of Mehmet Simsek to take over the reins of the economy from the position of vice president of the Turkish government is considered a clear signal to markets that the unorthodox economic policy, as economic analysts call it, and Turkey will end will be an attempt to return to normal.

Mr. Simsek was a former finance minister and vice president of Mr. Erdogan’s government, had an international career in major financial houses abroad, and left the government when he found that his positions were not accepted. Since Simsek stepped down, Erdogan has become more influential in managing the economy, resulting in high inflation and low lending rates.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is one of the main options that will show Mr. Erdogan’s intentions. It is strongly heard in Ankara circles that a particular ministry will be taken over by the representative of the Turkish president, Ibrahim Kalin, to signal a change. Mr. Kalin has served as the “unofficial foreign secretary” in recent years as he traveled to Washington and European capitals for talks that set many events. However, there are scenarios in the Turkish press that they foresee.
that Mevlut Cavusoglu will continue to act as Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Master Spy

There have been many consultations over the interior ministry as Erdogan is reportedly pushing for Suleiman Soylu’s removal to be promoted to deputy prime minister. On Wednesday evening, the Turkish president met on this issue with the chairman of the Nationalist Action Party, Devlet Bahceli.

Mr. Soylu directly accused the US and Mr. Biden of trying to overthrow Mr. Erdogan in a military coup in 2016 and of attempting a political coup against the Turkish president ahead of the presidential election.

The Turkish newspaper Sozcu claims that the Ministry of Internal Affairs will be taken over by the commander of the Turkish special services, Hakan Fidan, who is considered a trusted, reliable and capable partner of Mr. Erdogan and is respected abroad, especially in recent times. He took part in many negotiations on the Ukrainian issue, the normalization of Turkey’s relations with Egypt, Syria, etc.

Scenarios for replacing Mevlut Cavusoglu with Erdogan’s closest ally Ibrahim Kalin in the Foreign Ministry are multiplying.

For the Ministry of Defense, the name of Hulusi Akar, as well as the name of the head of the Armed Forces, Yashar Guler, is being discussed.

Decisive month

June is considered a critical month for the future of Turkey and its direction. The political scientists we spoke to tell us that Mr. Erdogan will also try to open up to the West and weigh the benefits he will get from this move. In a telephone conversation with Joe Biden, Erdogan immediately raised the issue of the F-16. In the event that he discovers that Washington is giving the go-ahead to modernizing these fighters, the Turkish president will remove the obstacles to Sweden’s entry into NATO, but will conduct tough negotiations on this issue.

The phone conversations and content of French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Kyriakos Mitsotakis indicate an attempt to start a new life, possibly in exchange for foreign investment and support for the Turkish economy.

Economic analysts make it clear that pre-election Ankara can withstand the economic “injections” of the Persian Gulf countries, as evidenced by Mr. Erdogan himself, but emphasize that the Turkish economy needs productive foreign investment and good valuations of international houses, so that in order to avoid any adventures and large financial crises.

An experienced journalist from a neighboring country noticed that the Turkish president, immediately after his re-election, planned to visit Hagia Sophia, as it was also the anniversary of the fall of Istanbul, but he chose to stay in the Turkish capital, did not keep his promise and started the next day.

with Russia

Political scientists emphasize that Turkey will try to have close political, economic and energy ties with Russia, as it has been in recent years, and explain that the stance taken by Moscow will also affect rapprochement with Western countries.

In Greek-Turkish, a few days before the first round of elections in Turkey, Mr. Erdogan gave us the stamp of the policy he intends to pursue, emphasizing: “With Greece, we can put aside hostilities and rivalries, this has caused great damage to both countries and should not be allowed to continue. I wish that the elections in both Greece and Turkey will be the beginning of a new era. From Turkey, we convey our cordial friendly greetings to Greece.”

In Ankara, they also recorded positively messages from Athens, as well as the prevention of tension in the Aegean with a de-escalation of hostilities, and they are waiting for the results of the Greek elections for the next steps.

Not a single Turkish official excludes the possibility of a meeting or even a greeting between Mr. Erdogan and the Greek Prime Minister at the NATO summit, which will be held July 11-12 in Lithuania.