Florida Governor Ron DeSandis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott are already generating interest from GOP donors ahead of the final battle for the anointing.

The ever-expanding field, combined with the fragmented rallying of Donald Trump’s supporters, poses a major challenge for De Sandis, threatening his ability to engage the former president’s base and fueling fears of a Trump recapture of the party in 2016.

The numbers speak for themselves: each new candidate threatens to deprive DeSandis of a small fraction of the vote, whether it’s Pence with Iowa evangelists or Scott with educated suburbanites. Trump’s supporters, 30% of the party’s voters, remain loyal to his side.

“With this kind of luck, Donald Trump should be playing in the casino. This is a huge problem for De Sandys,” says veteran GOP consultant Dave Carney. Trump’s advisers welcome each new nominee with thinly veiled satisfaction as part of the divide-and-conquer strategy his team has adopted since 2021.

“We don’t think we are living in 2016 again. The party’s voter base is divided into three parts: 35% of voters are only for Trump, 20% never Trump, and the remaining 45% are open to the candidacy of DeSandis, ”Ryan says. Tyson, DeSandis consultant.

Each new candidate threatens to deprive DeSandy of a small share of the vote, while Trump supporters remain loyal to his side.

De Sandys and others

In the months before he announced his candidacy, de Sandys and his allies portrayed the 2024 primary as a battle between two candidates. But as the Florida governor’s popularity has waned in recent months, amid questions about his character and political abilities, his opponents are discouraged. Some of them also have the financial means to stay in the spotlight for months. Scott entered the race with $22 million in the bank, earning another $2 million in just his first day of candidacy. Wealthy and obscure North Dakota Governor Doug Bergham thinks he has a chance in 2024 and is preparing to run for the anointing. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy has invested $10 million of his personal fortune in his own campaign. Like De Sandis, Ramaswamy promotes the idea against the ideologically “awakened” left.

Trump welcomed the new candidates. In January, when former UN ambassador Nikki Haley announced her intention to run, Trump did not explode, as many expected, but feigned indifference. In the days leading up to Scott’s nomination, Trump spoke positively of the senator while watching Fox News. “I like him. We will say good things about Tim,” Trump said.

Up to 10 people

According to political analysts at the beginning of the year, there will be few candidates on the electoral field, a maximum of five. “Anti-Trump” Republican funders have struggled to prevent a repeat of the 2016 phenomenon, when a plethora of candidates led Trump to victory. De Sandys’ recent electoral setbacks could mean that the number of candidates will reach ten.

Many Republicans who believe Trump should be defeated are expressing their frustration. “All Republican candidates should criticize Trump. Those who do not succeed in fighting the extreme right in the party undermine it. If only one or two candidates are ready to attack Trump, it looks like a personal rivalry. Only a rally can defeat Trump,” says Chris Sununu, governor of New Hampshire and a possible candidate for the party’s nomination. So far, Chris Christie, who has not shied away from criticizing De Sandys, has launched the most attacks on Trump. Republicans’ reluctance to attack Trump is unsettlingly reminiscent of 2016, when then-Trump rivals Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush didn’t bother him for months, believing he would drop in the polls over time.