Russia has recently focused its near-daily attacks on Kyiv, launching missiles and drones early in the morning and even in the afternoon in an attempt to wear down Ukraine’s air defenses, officials and experts quoted by AFP say.

Although Ukraine claims to have intercepted most of these shells and suffered only two casualties from falling debris, the strikes are surprising given that Kyiv is far from the main front lines and is not a major military objective.

Officials and analysts believe that these strikes are aimed at hindering Kyiv’s preparations for a planned major spring offensive, as well as exhausting its air defense capabilities.

Limitation of the counteroffensive and depletion of Ukrainian missiles

“This is their reaction to the preparation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive,” a senior Ukrainian official told AFP on condition of anonymity. “The expected attack makes them nervous.”

“They are trying to limit our capabilities: deplete our supply of surface-to-air missiles and distract our forces,” he added, pointing to the low cost of the Iranian-made Shahed drones used by Moscow compared to modern air defense missiles. the Ukrainian army.

According to Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst for the Ukrainian Information Resistance group, which fights against Russian propaganda, Russian forces are trying to localize Ukrainian air defense systems and occupy them so that they cannot be redeployed elsewhere.

According to the American analytical center Institute for the Study of War (ISW), “Russian troops started a new campaign (…) to degrade Ukraine’s counteroffensive capabilities.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on Twitter on Tuesday that the attacks were “aimed at exhausting Ukrainian air defense.” He called on partners from the EU and NATO to “increase the production and supply of air defense systems and ammunition.”

Target patriot

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that it had destroyed 29 of 31 attack drones in and around Kyiv on Tuesday morning. The level of success of the air defense of Ukraine, equipped with modern Western weapons, has increased dramatically since the beginning of the war.

The USA supplied Kiev with advanced Patriot air defense systems, which became priority targets for Russian troops.

“Their first goal is to try to destroy the Patriot air defense system,” Kovalenko said.

Photo system Patriot: ABACA / Abaca Press / Profimedia

Earlier this month, Moscow said it had managed to destroy a Patriot battery with a Kinjal hypersonic missile. US authorities said the battery was damaged but remained operational.

Ukrainian anti-aircraft forces, equipped with American Patriot and German Cheetah systems, were able to repel almost every Russian missile in the sky.

Russia has claimed that its Kinjal hypersonic missiles, also known as Killjoys, a term used by NATO, are “invincible”, but Ukraine claims to have shot down six of them in one night with the Patriot system.

• Will Ukraine be able to shoot down Russian hypersonic missiles with Patriot defense systems?

Revenge attack / Psychological effect

Russian attacks have a “great psychological effect” on Kyivans, despite the fact that casualties in the capital are rare, according to a military expert.

General Sir Richard Barrons, the former head of the British Joint Forces, told Sky News that this was likely one of the objectives of Moscow’s forces ahead of the much-vaunted Ukrainian counter-offensive.

According to him, the missile attack and drone attack “did not cause many losses and destruction, it obviously had a great psychological impact on the population.”

Sir Richard added: “Every time a Ukrainian air defense missile launcher fires a missile at a cheap drone, it’s one less missile… it’s about the Russians trying to wear out Ukrainian air defense as well.”

The former commander noted that Russian forces “will do everything possible to lower Ukrainian confidence” in the counteroffensive, and the air battle is “a really important part of what’s going to happen next.”

According to the spokesman of the Air Force of Ukraine, Yuriy Ignat, the latest strikes are also part of a psychological operation.

He called them “revenge” for Russia’s “failures” on the front line, aimed at appeasing Russian public opinion and an attempt to “sow panic among the Ukrainian population.”

“Of course these strikes cause irritation, how could it not be?”, the senior official added on condition of anonymity. But during the Second World War, “the Germans bombed London for five years, harder than the Russians bombed Kyiv, and what happened?

If Russia hopes that demoralized Ukrainians will push President Volodymyr Zelenskyi to peace talks, it shows that “they don’t know our psychology well,” Kovalenko added.

• Read also: ANALYSIS: The main types of weapons and strategies that Ukraine can use in a counteroffensive

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