It’s easy to be magnanimous when you’ve won, and Tayyip Erdogan had no problem showing noble feelings on Sunday night. “The only winner today is Turkey,” he exclaimed to cheering supporters outside the presidential palace in Ankara, shortly after the final results of the second round declared him the winner of the presidential election with 52.2% to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s 47.8%.

That’s just the transformation of a strong man into a more moderate lasted only a few minutes. In the same speech, he repeated the accusations he made against his opponent during the election campaign, where he more or less portrayed him as a hostage of the separatist Kurdish organization PKK. In fact, he emphasized that he was not going to release the leader of the legal pro-Kurdish HDP party, Selahattin Demirtas, while many of his followers, drunk on winning the elections, were shouting “death sentence to Selo” (i.e. Demirtas).
In the same venomous and divisive spirit were his malicious references to LGBTI people – he characteristically boasted that members of this community could not infiltrate the AKP Islamic Party or its nationalist MHP allies. The dance of the anti-Erdogan demons re-entered “German, French and British publications that wanted to bring down Erdogan with their covers … but failed miserably.” Before leaving for the Turkish capital, he greeted his fans at his home in Istanbul from the roof of the bus, creating an atmosphere of pandemonium, as the result of the match was visible from the very beginning.

“Most Unfair Election”

For his part, Kemal Kılıçdaroglu called these elections “the most unfair ever held” in Turkey, although he did not dispute their results, while saying that he would continue his fight for democratization, and expressed “deep sadness” about the troubles awaiting him country. But the 74-year-old politician, who has led the Kemalist CHP since 2010, is in a quandary after his latest attempt to oust Erdogan. Political scientists believe that after the defeat, it will be difficult for him to maintain the fragile unity of the six-party opposition, and he is likely to have to give up his seat ahead of the next showdown – local elections in 2024.

Istanbul’s Kemalist mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, has already demonstrated his leadership ambitions in a video he released the day after the election. “Great Atatürk said there are no hopeless situations, only desperate people,” Imamoglu said, reminding frustrated opposition voters that they represent almost half of Turkey and that “the only constant in life is change.”

The first foreign leader to congratulate Erdogan even before the result was announced was the Emir of Qatar, his staunch ally and financier Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. A little later, Vladimir Putin came and praised the “friend” of the president. They were followed by the leaders of the major Western powers, including Joe Biden, with whom the Turkish president spoke on the phone last night. According to the American president, he raised the issue of Sweden’s candidacy for NATO membership with Erdogan, and his interlocutor raised the issue of the F-16.

Turkey’s lifting of the veto on Sweden’s entry will be the first critical test of Erdogan’s third term in foreign policy. The latter yesterday contacted Egyptian President Abdelfattah al-Sisi by phone. As announced from Cairo, the leaders of the two countries agreed to immediately promote the modernization of bilateral diplomatic relations.

Source: REUTERS, AP.

Estimations of international analysts for the Turkish economy are ominous

With the Turkish lira falling again, the Istanbul stock market rising, and the cost of Turkey’s bankruptcy insurance, markets have welcomed Erdogan’s re-election as they assume the same unorthodox policies will continue with possible disastrous consequences. for the Turkish economy.

Since the beginning of the session, the Turkish lira has fallen even more yesterday, its exchange rate is now 20.44 pounds per dollar. Commenting on the continued weakening of the Turkish currency, which has depreciated about 80% against the dollar over the past five years, Wells Fargo’s Brendan McKenna stressed that his bank is “negative about the Turkish lira due to Erdogan’s re-election.” . The analyst in question even predicts that the pound will fall to a new all-time low of 23 pounds to the dollar towards the end of the year, before recording a new drop of 25 pounds to the dollar early next year. . His predictions are, of course, based on the assumption that the unorthodox monetary and economic policies of the Turkish president will continue. “The image of the economy and markets for Turkey is very negative,” he emphasizes and adds that the only way out for Turkey is the ability of the central bank to provide currency exchange with the countries of the Middle East and China.

Even more ominous are estimates from Morgan Stanley, which predicts the pound will fall 29% to 28 pounds to the dollar by the end of the year if Erdogan persists in the same policy. Similar are the assessments of Timothy Ash, an analyst at BlueBay Asset Management, who emphasizes that “the current policy is simply not viable.” As Timothy Ash explains, “when foreign exchange reserves are depleted and real interest rates are in negative territory, then the pressure on the currency will be great.” At the same time, the cost of Turkish default insurance is rising, with CDS (credit default swaps) reaching 664.18 basis points, up 20% from pre-election levels. As Selva Demiralp, a professor of economics at Koç University and a former Federal Reserve official, points out, this change in CDS value, along with rising stocks, reflects the market’s assessment that Turkey can only avoid a major crisis by returning to monetary orthodoxy. policy, namely the policy promised by the opposition. According to Steven Schoenfeld, CEO of MarketVector, “If the Turkish lira continues to weaken and inflation accelerates again due to unsustainably low interest rate policies, we could see a massive move by investors towards relatively safe investing in equities.”

Source: BLOOMBERG, CNBC.

this is not a triumph

Considering Erdogan’s massive state media, his subordinate media, and the imprisonment of some of his main political opponents, I wouldn’t call a 52% victory.

Guidon Rahman, Financial Times columnist

Welcome

Putin and Zelensky hail Erdogan’s victory as it means stability. Like many Western leaders for whom Türkiye remains a partner. However, Turkish citizens are at risk.

Dimitar Betsev, professor at Oxford

Hypocrisy

I am amazed at the ability of many Western leaders to hypocritically congratulate Erdogan on his re-election, even though they have been praying for his defeat for the past few months.

Chen Yuehua, China Daily correspondent in Beijing

Syrian deportations

One of the positive aspects of Erdogan’s victory is that Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s promises to forcibly expel Syrian refugees did not help him win.

Kenneth Roth, former head of Human Rights Watch