OUR Erdogan he managed to win in the second round with the air of victory in the first and the parliamentary majority he secured. He relied on the dichotomy of “stability and far-sightedness” and, appealing to the emotions of his compatriots, convinced them to trust him for a new five-year term.

He was quick to characterize the second round of the presidential election as proof that democracy works in Turkey, which he playfully stated a few days ago on American CNN as a hint to Biden.

Of course, democracy in a country is judged not only by the holding of elections, but also by what precedes them, not only before the elections, but throughout the entire term of office of the president and government. The rule of law is only on paper, there is no separation of three powers, interference with justice is systematic, as is the imprisonment and persecution of dissidents, so it would not be an exaggeration to characterize the Erdogan system as a regime. As part of this, liberals, intellectuals, women and other groups who have been or will be targeted by the Turkish presidency are being suffocated, even forcing them to flee. It is difficult, however, to expect a change in domestic policy, despite the fact that in his first statements the Turkish president made many references to democracy.

Various readings

However, the result is two readings: One (very optimistic) is that half of Turkey is against Erdogan and his methods and defiantly opposes the authoritarian regime, and that, despite the defeat of the opposition, the foundations for the reversal of the ratios have been laid. After all, the ruling party lost 7%, and Erdogan 2.5% compared to 2018. It is hoped that a significant part of the world has created a wave of change that will be expressed in the next competition. Of course, for this the opposition must remain united, because nine months later, in the midst of an economic crisis and the adoption of unpleasant and unpopular measures, the result of which may be decisive even for an early re-admission to the elections.

However, the initiative of the movements will not belong to the opposition, but to the experienced Erdogan. In the meantime, you need to find a replacement for Kylychdaroglu. In the end, the latter prevailed over seven parties and the desire of several powerful people on the planet, especially Westerners, to see a change in Turkey’s course.

Thus second reading he says he is the absolute ruler. And certainly in the wake of a very serious economic crisis and the consequences of a dramatic earthquake that highlighted the pathologies of the state apparatus. Thus, the Turkish president can claim to have won another great victory over the gods and demons, which allows him to complete 26 years in power, that is, a quarter of a century. Even his detractors admit that the changes in the appearance and identity of the neighboring country that occurred during the years of Erdogan’s rule, if not irreversible, will take a long time to correct. Yes it identification problem this played an important role in the end result, in favor of Erdogan, as the issues of everyday life and the economy receded into the background, but also because the combination of political Islam and various forms of ultra-nationalism and deep conservatism finds expression in his face. And this is the mainstream today in Turkey.

Social penetration of Erdogan and the AKP

On the other hand, for those who underestimate the influence of the permanent resident of the White Palace on society, we must note the following: during the years of his political hegemony, many benefited from a client state that not only developed, but also strengthened. In addition, the party Equity and Development (AKP) it operates in society according to the logic of the Muslim Brotherhood, that is, from the point of view of the popular base, infiltrating social groups that felt forgotten and were outside the central system for decades. Even the majority of Kurds have given preference to Erdogan for many years, and in the elections on May 14 (maybe even today), many of those who abstained were Kurds (against the line to vote for Kılıçdaroğlu). In any case, this is the type of customer relationship established by the SRP. dependency relationshipbecause most of the beneficiaries believe that under other circumstances they will again be outside the jurisdiction of political and economic power.

We can also only note that with unbridled indulgence recent months before elections and with specific measures such as Early retirement, which concerned more than 2 million Turks, Erdogan managed to fix the serious economic problems that his compatriots faced every day and give them a perspective on the future (as he did with the victims of the earthquake, whom he ordered at home while they now live in scenes, as a result of which he received up to 75% in some of them). Because when a politician is able to offer money by raising salaries and pensions, which, of course, he himself has reduced, he gets the impression that the potential of the economy is great, and the image of the (imaginary) collapse is propaganda from the opposition. . In the worst case scenario for Erdogan, some AKP voters and undecideds have become disconcerted, seeing, on the one hand, a surge in inflation, a decrease in purchasing power and a devaluation of the hryvnia, and on the other, an increase in the percentage of state aid recipients between 2019 and 2020. by 187%. Today, at least 32% of the population receives state assistance, and it is not an exaggeration to say that the vast majority of them voted for Erdogan.

Additional reasons for the prevalence and enormity of the economy

Looking for additional reasons for Erdogan’s dominance, we find, among other things, almost complete control over the mediaimplying a disproportionate exposure of the views of presidential candidates, the development within the Altun White House of a well-established propaganda apparatus that managed to highlight the contradictions of a motley opposition coalition and its division, the demonization of the opposition coalition, in which they were accused of having links with terrorists because of his collusion with the Kurds (depriving them of votes of nationalists) and, of course, Gülen and, accordingly, an external enemy – in this case, the United States, which also supports the Syrian Kurds.

He was a “tough” Minister of the Interior Suleiman Soyluwho signed a contract to target the Americans, and Erdogan knew that anti-American rhetoric resonated with some of his countrymen, especially against the background of the impressive rise of ultranationalists who feed on this rhetoric. As for the opposition, the storm that followed the defeat of the first round and the change from a moderate and modernizing narrative to a more right-wing and nationalist one has not borne fruit, because Erdogan is the most authentic and timeless representative of these circles. but also because he did not take part in the vote of many young people and Kurds.

In any case, the most difficult thing for the Turkish president is now beginning, since he is called upon to tame the economic beast, which he himself raised. And his decisions, which cannot but be between bad and worse, have their own significance for the country’s relations with other states, including Greece.

* Mr. Konstantinos Filis is Director of the Institute of International Affairs, Professor at the American College of Greece and International Affairs Analyst for ANT1.