Ukraine appears to have received its first signal that it may be dreaming of American F-16 fighter jets after US President Joe Biden said he supports joint allied training programs for Ukrainian pilots on the multi-role aircraft. However, Kyiv has not yet received specific public commitments regarding their delivery. However, fulfilling the wishes of the Ukrainian army is not the solution to winning the war, according to American experts in a CNN analysis.

Biden’s remarks at the G7 summit in Japan came days after Britain and the Netherlands said they were forming an “international coalition” to help Ukraine buy F-16 jets as it seeks to improve its defenses against Russian airstrikes, CNN said.

The F-16s would be an upgrade of Soviet-era aircraft currently in the Ukrainian fleet.

Zelenskyy welcomed Biden’s decision, saying that “it will significantly improve our army in the sky.”

But analysts warn that the planes are not “silver bullets” and have vulnerabilities that Moscow is well aware of and can exploit.

Expectations are too high for the F-16

A pilot who still flies an F-16 fighter jet told CNN that Ukrainians’ expectations may actually be too high.

“To your question about whether the F-16 will matter. He won’t do it,” said the pilot on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak on the subject.

Ukrainian Air Force Commander Serhii Golubtsov said that Ukraine desperately needs F-16 fighter jets, which, he said, are “four to five times” more effective than the Soviet-era jets that Ukraine currently uses, Reuters reports.

F-16, the most popular fighter in the world

The F-16 is a multirole aircraft capable of performing air defense missions, strike missions against land and sea targets in all weather conditions, day and night, and aerial reconnaissance missions.

The US Air Force calls the F-16, which first entered service in the 1970s, “a relatively inexpensive and highly effective weapon system.”

Thousands of aircraft were built over the decades and hundreds of aircraft were exported around the world.

Nearly 2,200 F-16s are currently in service worldwide, making it the most popular fighter jet on the planet, accounting for 15 percent of the world’s fleet, according to the director of Air Force Flight Global.

“There are other planes more powerful than the F-16”

It is expected that the F-16 fighter jets that may end up in Ukraine will be older versions that were in the fleets of US allies, particularly in Western Europe.

Analysts say that the F-16s that Ukraine will receive are not the oldest, but aircraft that have received avionics and updated software.

Ukraine announced the need for about 200 F-16 fighters.

“The West has a surplus of F-16s that provide immediate availability and a well-established logistics route,” said Robert Hopkins, a former U.S. Air Force pilot.

“There are other aircraft that are more capable than the F-16, but they are fewer and not available for transfer,” Hopkins added.

Holland, the most convenient answer

The former pilot is probably referring to the American-made F-35 and F/A-18 or the French Air Force Rafale. There are others, less known.

“The best aircraft from a technical point of view would undoubtedly be the Swedish Grippen, due to its combat capabilities, ability to operate from hard bases and easier maintenance,” said Peter Leighton, a fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute and a former member of the Royal Australian Air Force. An air force officer, referring to the Gripen aircraft, a light multi-role single-engine aircraft manufactured by the Swedish aircraft company SAAB.

“However, the annual level of their production is low and there are none.”

Leighton cited the Netherlands as an example where the F-16 might be the easiest answer for Ukraine.

“The Dutch (have) about 40 F-16s. These Dutch aircraft have been gradually modernized, have relatively modern radar and avionics systems and are capable of using modern weapons,” Leighton said.

F-16 fighter maintenance issues

Analysts say the large number of active F-16s around the world means they have a well-established logistics route and plenty of available spare parts, critical components for maintaining the aircraft’s combat capability.

But experts still note that for such a modern fighter as the F-16, the training of maintenance personnel can last longer than the training of pilots.

“I think you can train a Ukrainian pilot capable of flying the F-16 in three months,” Leighton said.

But “training of maintenance personnel could take months or years, depending on the desired skill level,” according to a March report on possible F-16 transfers by the Congressional Research Service.

The report mentions that the F-16 requires 16 hours of maintenance for one hour of flight.

“Learning to fly the F-16 is only part of the battle”

F-16s are easy to learn to fly, but they can take years to be used effectively in a “dynamic threat environment,” according to an F-16 pilot who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“Learning to fly the F-16 is only part of the battle. American pilots first learn to fly, then learn to fly two F-16s, then four F-16s. This is a multi-year process, and it only applies to the main tactical unit of application,” the F-16 pilot noted.

Leighton said current Ukrainian fighter pilots have proven their skills and could “learn on the job” in the F-16 if they are limited to short-term air defense, shooting down Russian jets or interceptor missiles.

“My theory collapses if we try to train them to make low-altitude, night/all-weather ground attacks using infrared systems and laser-guided bombs; it’s going to take longer,” Leighton said.

Bad airstrips for F-16 and expensive weapons

There is also the question of where the base for F-16s, which Ukraine will receive from Western allies, could be.

“To attract Western aircraft, Ukraine may have to rebuild and possibly expand a number of airstrips, a process that Russia is likely to notice. If only a few airfields were suitable and in known locations, concentrated Russian attacks could disrupt flights of Ukrainian F-16s,” RAND Corp. analysts wrote. John Hoehn and William Courtney on their blog earlier this month.

Assuming Ukraine can overcome logistical and maintenance hurdles and find safe airstrips from which to operate the F-16, Kyiv still needs the right weapons to be effective against the key fighters used by Russia, such as like the Su-25 and MiG-31, say analysts.

Modern western weapons for the F-16 would be expensive. For example, one advanced medium-range air-to-air missile (AMRAAM) costs about $1.2 million, CRS said, adding that it takes about two years to produce.

“No plane will change the course of the war”

For all the potential shortcomings of the F-16 fighter jets, Hopkins said there is a political war going on, and victories are needed in that battle.

Ukraine’s purchase of F-16s will demonstrate “strong political and diplomatic cooperation between several Western countries (and especially NATO),” he said.

Leighton said Ukraine also needs to take a long-term view as Soviet-era aircraft wear out or die in combat.

“Over time, there will be no combat-capable Ukrainian aviation. They need new aircraft for future air defense missions,” Leighton said.

The F-16 pilot believes that the fighter jets that the Allies could provide to Kyiv will not speed up the end of the war.

“Ukrainians getting F-16s will boost morale and add limited combat capability and that’s it,” the pilot said.

“They may land a few strikes next year and have a few victories, but no plane will change the course of the war.”

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