OUR Evgeny Prigozhinhead of a Russian mercenary company Wagnerannounced on Saturday that his fighters had completely captured Bahamut in Eastern Ukraine after months of intense fighting.

The Ukrainian side initially denied this claim, but Volodymyr Zelensky appeared to confirm Bakhmut’s loss in a statement he made at the G7 summit in Japan.

In particular, when asked whether the city remains under the control of Kyiv, the Ukrainian president replied: “I think not. Today [η πόλη] it’s only in our hearts.”

However, later, Zelensky’s press attaché clarified that the president answered the other part of the question in this way.

“A question from a journalist: the Russians said they captured Bakhmut,” Sergey Nikiforov wrote on Facebook. “President’s response: I don’t believe.”

The spokesman added in Ukrainian: “Thus, the president denied the capture of Bahamut.”

Later, government officials in Kiev also detailed the Greater Bakhmut points still controlled by the Ukrainians, even talking about a circular movement that controls the arc around the damaged city, allowing Ukrainian forces to resupply and counterattack.

The Ukrainian president himself issued a statement essentially clarifying his previous position and denying that the Russians are in full control of Bakhmut.

“Ukrainian forces remain in the city, it is not true that it has been taken by the Russians,” he said.

But what happens if the Ukrainians do lose this particular city, and how beneficial would the Russians be to control it?

Springboard?

Bahamut is a regional transport and logistics hub. It is located in the Donetsk region and is part of the predominantly Russian-speaking industrial region of Donbass, which Moscow wants to annex.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called the potential fall of the city “symbolic”, as did Western military analysts.

However, after the capture of Bakhmut, two other large cities of the Donetsk region, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, will be within the reach of Russian artillery. Moscow will need to take control of both if it is to succeed in what it calls efforts to “liberate the people of the Donetsk Republic.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN in March that he was concerned that Russian forces would have an “open road” to the two aforementioned cities if they succeeded in capturing Bakhmut, adding that his order to retain control of the city was a strategic decision.

The nearby town of Chasov Yar, west of Bakhmut, is likely to be next to be attacked by the Russians, although it is at a higher elevation and Ukrainian forces are said to have built defensive fortifications over a wider area.

Western analysts and diplomats have expressed skepticism that Moscow’s forces could immediately capitalize on the capture of Bakhmut, given that they began shelling the city a year ago, launched a ground attack on it in August and have since suffered heavy losses.

The Russians’ chaotic withdrawal from northeast Ukraine last year has also stripped them of territory that would make it easier for them to capture cities like Sloviansk if they eventually took control of Bakhmut.

death zone

Both Ukraine and Russia say the battle for Bakhmut (which Moscow refers to by its Soviet name Artyomovsk) was instrumental in damaging the enemy and as a distraction in the face of a long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive.

The scenery of the fighting in the city is reminiscent of the First World War, with trench fighting, relentless artillery fire and rocket attacks on a heavily mined field. In addition, there are skirmishes with militants moving from one building to another, as well as airstrikes that have damaged much of the city.

The images circulating on social media are grim, showing the corpses of soldiers from both the Ukrainian and Russian sides. Figures on the number of victims are classified, but US officials believe that tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, many of whom were prisoners recruited by Wagner, were killed. Russian officials also said that the Ukrainians also suffered heavy losses. Reuters was unable to verify this information.

It is also noted that the head of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, released several photos of his dead fighters, seeking, among other things, to put pressure on the Russian Defense Ministry so that his group would receive more ammunition.

Zelensky called the Bakhmut Fortress a symbol of resistance and a means of weakening the Russian army.

However, it is noted that the Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka, who visited the Bakhmut region with colleagues in March, said that it no longer makes sense from a military point of view to maintain control over the city, given the scale of losses and the cost to Ukraine.

Psychological reinforcement

The Russian capture of Bahamut will be their first major victory since last July and is expected to lift their morale after their defeats.

Conversely, the loss of the city could demoralize Ukrainians, even though Kyiv’s allies say it has little strategic value.

Wagner win?

The capture of the city could also be a factor in strengthening Wagner and his advertising-hungry leader.

The 61-year-old former prisoner and Western-sanctioned Kremlin pharmacist has made efforts to use his company’s military successes as leverage for political influence.

Some Western analysts believe that Ukraine’s goal at Bakhmut was to defeat Wagner’s forces, while Prigozhin acknowledged that his mercenaries would need additional support from the regular Russian army to advance beyond Bakhmut.

^{Source: Reuters.}