For several months now, his Western allies Ukrainian are rushing to send billions of dollars worth of weapons and ammunition to support Kyiv ahead of its long-awaited spring counter-offensive.

However, despite the fact that only a few weeks remained before the summer, this counterattack had not yet begun.

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the delay was due to his country not having enough Western weapons to achieve its goals without mass casualties. In addition, according to representatives of the Ministry of Defense and experts, the weather conditions, as well as the training of fighters, apparently play a role.

However, officials insist that a counterattack is imminent. In fact, Kyiv has already taken some steps that shape the desired conditions, a US official told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.

In this context, the AR examines in detail the factors delaying the Ukrainian counter-offensive, as well as the movements of Russians and Ukrainians in anticipation of this development.

Weather

One of the main reasons for the delay has to do with the weather. This year, the ground in Ukraine has been thawing longer due to the fact that the spring has been wet and cold so far. This fact makes it difficult for the Ukrainians to counterattack.

In addition, deep mud has been preserved on the ground, which makes it difficult for some vehicles to move. “Mud is like soup,” the official says. “You sink into it.”

Education

In recent months, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have received training both in the United States and in other Western allies of Kyiv. But the last Ukrainian battalion that the US is training is now completing its program.

At the same time, the total number of Ukrainians trained in the United States is more than 10,700 people. These forces not only developed combat and medical capabilities, but also learned advanced tactics on Stryker and Bradley armored fighting vehicles and Paladin self-propelled howitzers.

In addition, there are very well-trained teams that have learned how to operate the Patriot air defense system. Up to 11,000 additional Ukrainian fighters a day are joining other training programs run by more than 30 allied nations, according to the US military.

A new stage will soon begin: the United States will begin training Ukrainians on Abrams tanks at the Grafenwoehr training ground in Germany. The Ukrainians, however, will not wait until their tank training is over to launch a counterattack, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov pointed out in late April.

Arms deliveries

In the past five months alone, the US has announced that it will send more than $14 billion worth of weapons and ammunition to Kyiv. NATO and other Western allies also rushed to the rescue, promising to send billions of dollars worth of tanks, armored personnel carriers and air defense systems.

But most of that equipment has yet to be delivered, says Ben Barry, a former British intelligence officer and now a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

For example, out of about 300 tanks that the West committed to send – such as the Leopard 2 – only 100 were delivered. At the same time, out of 700 combat vehicles that were supposed to be sent, such as the British Marauder and the American Bradley, only 300 arrived in Ukraine.

Ukraine will also need enough munitions to keep up the intense pace of fighting once the counter-offensive begins.

Information about the counterattack

Both Russia and Ukraine are on standby in anticipation of a counterattack.

In particular, Moscow has deployed some 200,000 people along the 1,000-kilometer line, a Western official who declined to be named said.

These troops are not as well trained as the forces that first invaded Ukraine and suffered heavy losses. However, they are protected by moats, minefields and “dragon’s teeth”, that is, triangular concrete barriers that impede the movement of tanks.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has begun organizing military operations that include, among other things, firing long-range artillery shells at Russian troops on the front lines. This may be a sign that Ukraine is preparing to move forward in the region, or it may be a bait aimed at distracting the Russians from real plans for a first strike, the official explained.

When Ukraine attempts to breach these lines, it will likely be a sign of a counteroffensive, he says, as does Ben Barry.

Barry, in fact, emphasizes that when the Ukrainians begin to cross Russian-held territory and try to attack the Kremlin’s forward forces, “there will be no doubt” that a counterattack will begin.

^{Source: Associated Press.}