It started yesterday Tuesday in his Parliament Ecuador a lawsuit that could lead to the firing of an unpopular conservative president Guillermo Lasso, who has declared his “absolute, manifest and undeniable innocence” to members of a national delegation in a country where political conflict is coming to a head amid soaring organized crime violence.

In the presence of 109 out of 137 deputies, the parliament began its session with the first proposals to impeach the president, who allegedly turned a blind eye to the case of misuse of public money.

The left, which has a majority of seats in the body, sees this process as an opportunity to overthrow the right-wing government and rebuild its forces after the conviction in absentia of its former leader, the former president. Rafael Correa (2007-2017), in exile in Belgium to serve eight years in prison for corruption.

Lasso, 67, a former banker in power since 2021, is accused by his opponents of misusing a government contract to transport crude oil.

“There is no evidence, no testimony” to this, “on the contrary, there is information proving my absolute, obvious and indisputable innocence,” the head of state insisted, addressing members of parliament, where there will be 92 votes (2/3). it is necessary from 137) to stop. He had three hours to defend in the semicircle.

In June 2022, there was already an attempt to overthrow Mr. Lasso as the country was paralyzed by indigenous protests over a soaring cost of living, but a divided opposition failed to muster the necessary majority.

Spectrum of volatility

The president’s trial recalls the specter of political instability that Ecuador experienced between 1997 and 2005, when popular uprisings toppled three presidents.

The difference this time is that Mr. Lasso risks being removed from power “by institutional rules” rather than by force, said Esteban Nichols, a political scientist at Simón Bolivar University of the Andes in Quito.

If he does resign, Mr. Lasso will become the second President of Ecuador to be removed from office in this kind of process in 90 years. In 1933, Juan de Dios Martínez (1932–1933) was fired under the same mechanism.

But even if he retains his seat, Mr Lasso will have no choice but to “keep watching the country slide into hell” as he rules with an opposition that has a majority in parliament, with no prospect of dialogue and understanding. constitutionalist Rafael Oyarte.

The president’s faction and his allies have only 25 seats in parliament, compared to the faction’s 49 in favor of his predecessor Rafael Correa, to which are added 25 seats by Pachacutic, the powerful parliamentary wing of the indigenous movement.

Several hundred supporters of the right-wing government gathered peacefully around the parliament building under police guard, chanting slogans such as “long live democracy”, vowing to defend “democracy and peace”.

“Deceive”

The opposition only wants “destabilization, not stability and the strengthening of the institutions that the country so badly needs,” Interior Minister Henri Koukalon complained to the press.

Mr Lasso has an ace up his sleeve: a constitutional mechanism known as “mutual death” that allows him to dissolve parliament and call early simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections.

However, in this case, it could provoke “a social problem, a real instability,” political scientist Esteban Nichols warns.

A political standoff is unfolding as the country has been rocked for months by a wave of violence linked to a power struggle between drug gangs.

OUR mechanism of “mutual death” it was created during the presidency of Rafael Correa and was never used.

For Mr. Oyarte, its use would be a sign of “political irresponsibility” on Mr. Lasso’s part, since it could favor Mr. Correa’s faction.

“Although there is no certainty that they will secure the post of president of the republic, it is certain that the number of their deputies, who are currently 49 out of 137, will increase,” he said.

From the side CONAYthe largest collective of the indigenous population, advocates the removal of Mr. Lasso from power, as he believes that with this president “Ecuador has no future, only fear and uncertainty.”

If he resigns, Mr. Lasso will be replaced by his vice president, Alfredo Borrero, who will complete his four-year term. In the event of a dissolution of Parliament, the Electoral Court must set a new election date within seven days.

According to APE-MPE, AFP and Reuters.