Its installed power Erdogan regime exaggerates the typical weakness of the opposition on electionsin a country that is leaving without deviating from its European perspective.

The dominant scenario now is the assertion of a nationalistic, theocratic view of things, despite the economic downturn, devastating earthquake and international marginalization Türkiye. This is the main conclusion six analysts who spoke to “K” evaluating the results of Sunday’s elections in a neighboring country.

MICHAEL RUBIN
Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
Türkiye like Iran

Let’s face it: elections in Turkey are the same as in Iran. They are a front to ensure the legitimacy of dictators in a system that will never allow real change. Both countries now have supreme leaders whose legitimacy is based on their own concept of God, not on the electorate. For Turkey and its neighbors, the worst is yet to come. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is too proud and too clumsy to change his behavior. He runs the origin economy and, like Saddam Hussein in 1990, will look for the easy way out. That means more adventure, more combat, and more distraction for his adoring fans. The only open question right now is this: Recep Tayyip Erdogan used the prime minister and the presidency to accumulate billions of dollars in stolen and embezzled income. As he now has another five years to go, the Turks will simply have to ask themselves: Will their corrupt leader become the world’s first trillionaire?

SONER CHAGAPTAY
Director of the Department of Turkic Studies at the Washington Institute, historian, columnist and writer.
Complete control of Erdogan

The result did not come as a surprise. Erdogan controls almost all institutions and 90% of the media are controlled by companies close to him. Notably, most Turks do not speak any language other than Turkish. Erdogan also enjoyed the support of Putin and the Persian Gulf monarchs in economic matters. It was a very difficult task for Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who had to overcome a greater distance in order to catch up and pass Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Moreover, the fragmentation of the forces of the opposition coalition did not convince public opinion of the nature of the alliance.

CHINGIZ AKTAR
Scientific politician, specialist in Turkish-European relations
Continuous mode

As I predicted from the K columns, the regime in Ankara has shown its resilience against all odds – the earthquake, economic hardship and general moral decline. Totalitarian rulers are supported by the masses who support them at any cost. They can also come to power as a result of elections, but they will not necessarily leave by losing the election.

Thus, in addition to mass support, the dangers of selective engineering were very real. The opposition was unable to neutralize them because they never took them seriously. They preferred to bet on the virtues of a hypothetical “Turkish democracy” and a non-existent rule of law, which supposedly provides all the necessary legal guarantees for holding free and fair elections. Thus, they ignored the hard truth that since 2015, no election consultation has been free or fair. I am not here analyzing the countless tactical errors of the grand coalition formed by the opposition, which ranged from the extreme right to the extreme left. As everything shows, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will remain at the helm of the country.

The opposition CHP cannot continue to work with the defeated Kılıçdaroğlu, who will be replaced by Imamoğlu, unless the latter is removed as mayor in the meantime. Fascist iYi Party President Aksener will also step down and the far right will be united under the chairmanship of Sinan Ogan as a result of the MHP-iYi merger. Finally, the regime will face enormous difficulties in continuing as before, whether on the domestic or foreign front. A huge, uncertain story unfolds before us.

KEMAL KIRISI
Turkey Affairs Analyst, Brookings Institution
Strengthening nationalism

The results are puzzling, disturbing and unsettling. First of all, we analysts need to better understand what we have missed from our analyzes in the past. We certainly must recognize that we will face a Turkey that will be more nationalistic, more conservative, more introverted, more businesslike in its dealings with the West, and ultimately more limited economically.

Yavuz Baidar
Free Turkish Press editor-in-chief, journalist, blogger and activist
History of elections in Turkey

The May 14 elections confirmed the strength of Erdogan’s power grab more than any other previous contest. While this is likely to leave a lot of suspicion of data manipulation that will need to be verified, the nature of Erdogan’s control over the state apparatus and his dominance of the coalition he leads leaves little wiggle room for an opposition that is doomed to split in a second round. As Recep Tayyip Erdogan solidifies his base in parliament, he looks set to defeat Kemal Kilicdaroglu by an even larger margin, who appears to have failed to win over disgruntled, devout Sunni voters.

All in all, the choice that emerged in this election will go down in history as citizens support majority rule, a certain mixture of Islamists, militarists, with an overdose of hardline nationalism on the table. In its centenary year, Turkey continues to move away from the legacy of Kemal Atatürk, weakening its democracy.

RYAN GINGERAS
Late Ottoman Historian, Naval Postgraduate.
Television Democracy

Watching the scores broadcast on CNN Turk, widely known for its pro-government focus, I could tell that the commentators seemed extremely confident in the outcome of the match. This reminded me that public opinion in Turkey is largely shaped by television. Apparently, many believed that the opposition would ally with the PKK, that Recep Tayyip Erdogan had succeeded in the past and therefore could succeed in the future, and that in any case, continuity is better than change. It is noteworthy that the main force in these elections was undoubtedly nationalism.