2023 was supposed to be his year Erdogan. An annual station (because this year marks the centenary of the founding of modern Turkey), during which the chapter Justice and Development Party (AKP) will consolidate, as the new Mustafa Kemal, his “undisputed” tenure as President of Turkey, and with it Turkey’s entry into a new era, which Wednesday Erdogan now greets like “century turkey“.
In the background, behind Erdogan and those with him: Hagia Sophia now as a mosque and maps of the so-called “Blue Motherland” (“Mavi Watan”) as the official narrative, Turkish drones that have made a name for themselves internationally, and drilling installations with Ottoman names multiply, Turkey as Türkiye and the Aegean as “Turkege”…
However, sometimes things don’t go according to plan. destructive earthquake vibration out of 6her February came to spoil the “climate” of the neighbors, the climate, which, however, some time ago began to deteriorate due to the clouds accumulated over recent years over Turkish economyin the shadow of runaway inflation, current account deficits, depreciation of the Turkish lira against the dollar, and shrinking foreign exchange reserves.
In 2011, as prime minister, Mr. Erdogan presented an ambitious vision based on which Türkiye should like 2023 to earn a place in the club of the ten largest economies in the world. This year 2023 now the goals have not been achieved, and Erdogan is trying to cover up the refuted proclamations by looking again into the future: to 2053 and the so-called “Turkish century”, which, according to Ankara, is now beginning.
2023 has already turned into a year of trials for Erdogan, who, after 20 consecutive years in power (2003-2023), is facing what is perhaps the most difficult, critical and controversial electoral struggle of his political career.
polls they are losing the lead to his rival in the presidential election, the 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu whose presidential candidacy is supported by the motley “National Alliance” of the “six” (CHP, AI, Saadet, DP, DEVA, He will come), but also the Kurds/pro-Kurds of the People’s Democratic Party (HDP).
The 69-year-old Erdogan’s presidential candidacy, on the other hand, is supported by his own “People’s Alliance” of four (AKP, MHP, BBP, YRP), next to which there are a number of smaller parties (HUDA PAR, DYP, DSP, Büyük Türkiye, Yeni Dunya).
Who Will Win the Presidential Election in the End?her Maybe; According to most heart rate measurements, the twin Erdogan – Kilicdaroglu he must go to the second presidential round on May 28, since no one will be able to score more than 50% on the first Sunday.
It is noted that on May 14, after the sudden departure of Muharrem Ince last Thursday, there will be only three candidates for the presidency of Turkey: Erdogan, Kılıçdaroğlu and – who left the nationalist field – Sinan Ogan which collects about 4% in polls.
However, concurrent parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 14 to elect a total of 600 deputies who will make up the new national assembly, and there Erdogan’s People’s Alliance appears to have an advantage over the opposition. Alliance of Nations.
The aforementioned “alliances” did not really clash again at the ballot box in their current form, in the context of a dual (parliamentary and presidential) electoral competition, as they will on 14her Maybe. In other words, the landscape is unexplored, and all possibilities are open.
But what factors together will determine the final result?
The youth
About 5-6 million young people Türkiye they are voting for the first time this year and much is expected to be judged by their choice. “The Fight for Five Million Young First-Time Voters,” read the headline of an article on the Middle East Eye website. Analysts estimate that Erdogan’s AKP no longer has the appeal it once had among the younger generation, while much of the reactionary voice is expected to come from the youth, but it is not certain that it will go to the opposition National alliance.” from Kilicdaroglu And Axener.
Woman
Of the 64.1 million registered Turkish voters, the majority (32.3 million) women. And their voting has been talked about a lot in Turkey lately, as other outlets see women, even politically/socially conservative ones, already alienated and betraying Erdogan’s AKP (a characteristic feature of “Turkish Erdogan risks alienating conservative female voters” by Politico), while while others see some of them, in this case “housewives”, remain electorally loyal to Tayyip. “Women’s voting is one of the determining factors in the May 14 elections. The ruling coalition included parties with very problematic views on women and women’s rights. The female mainstay of the AKP is housewives, but the tide is changing,” writes Evangelos Aretaios in his analysis for the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP). It is recalled that, despite the cases of femicide, which, unfortunately, there have been and continue to be too many in Turkey, the Erdogan government has also withdrew from the Convention on Preventing and Combating Violence against Women since 2021, tragically also called the Istanbul Convention, since it was signed there in 2011.
Turks Abroad
About 3.4 million registered Turkish voters live outside of Turkey, of which about 1.5 million are in Germany. “Turks abroad who voted this year were more compared to the last elections in 2018. But the vote reflects the polarization that already exists in the Turkish diaspora in terms of support for Erdogan,” the Deutsche Welle article says. It is noted that voting for Turks abroad has already ended since May 9.
Business world
Referring to his experience of participating in an event in which he took part a few days ago along with the leaders of the sociological company KONDA, political scientists and businessmen in the context of the Turkish economic conference Uludag Economic Summit (UEZ), well-known Turkish journalist Murat Getkin claims that approximately 60% of the participants these debates were on the side of Kılıçdaroğlu…
Party questions
There are AKP voters who do not see the pre-election collusion with the Hyuda Par extremists, Meral Aksener voters who do not see Kilicdaroglu, and HDP voters who are not going to support the opposition presidential candidate. In other words, rival blocs are formed, but when we talk about such numerous and diverse party coalitions, leaks are inevitable.
Economics – Refugee/Immigrant
For a very large segment of Turkish voters, the economy and the refugee issue (in this case, the presence of millions of Syrians and Afghans within Turkish borders) are probably the two main – practical – pre-election issues. “We are not racists, but we want these people to continue their lives in their country, in better conditions.“, characteristically said Kemal Kilicdaroglu speaking a few days ago in the Wall Street Journal.
Counting of votes – next day
Ensuring the transparency, credibility and legitimacy of the electoral process is no small source of concern in a country like Turkey, which has endured coups, recounts, interference from above, contested election results and allegations of violence and fraud. Merve Tahiroglu (Middle East Democracy Project/POMED) in his analysis highlights the risk that the elections will be marred by incidents of violence and fraud if the election result does not please Erdogan’s side, while Kılıçdaroğlu himself warned of this. possible “provocations” on election night. What happens remains to be seen. However, it is believed that it is almost certain that the election results will be contested by the losers, whoever they are, especially if they are marginalized, as expected.
Kılıçdaroğlu urged Russia not to interfere in Turkey’s internal politics
“Dear Russian friends,
You are behind the conspiracies, Deep Fake content and recordings that were exposed yesterday in this country. Hands off the Turkish state.” https://t.co/6tMuDHMgjv— Ragip Soylu (@ragipsoylu) May 11, 2023
International factor – What do the “outsiders” want
Officially, no foreign leadership is going to take the side of one side or another. Unofficially, however, thanks to publications and leaks, Westerners seem to favor the possibility Erdogan’s defeat. OUR Russia on the other hand, but also some Gulf countries say they would prefer one Erdogan victory. In this context, the opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu would hasten to accuse the Russians just 24 hours before the election of trying to interfere in the Turkish elections by spreading fake news, while the interior minister Suleiman Soylu would, on the contrary, bring similar accusations against Americans…
Source: Kathimerini
Anna White is a journalist at 247 News Reel, where she writes on world news and current events. She is known for her insightful analysis and compelling storytelling. Anna’s articles have been widely read and shared, earning her a reputation as a talented and respected journalist. She delivers in-depth and accurate understanding of the world’s most pressing issues.