When Vladimir Putin takes the stage on Tuesday to celebrate the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, his speech on Red Square will come after a tumultuous week in which drones attacked the Kremlin and one of his key allies, Yevgeny Prigozhin, threatened rebellion. The Guardian, quoted by News.ro.

Dramatic footage last Wednesday of two drones flying over the walls of the Kremlin, Moscow’s historic seat of power, exposed vulnerabilities in the heart of the Russian capital, exposing the Russian government to fire.

Authorities banned the use of drones and began jamming GPS signals, leading to chaos around the Kremlin on ride-sharing apps. Police hastily handed out binoculars to spot the approaching drones.

“There’s a nervousness that we’ve never seen before,” said a Moscow City Hall official. “But Victory Day must take place, there is no other option,” he added on condition of anonymity.

This came to light on Friday, when President Vladimir Putin took the unusual step of discussing preparations for the Victory Day Parade at a meeting of his Security Council, which is made up of senior Russian state officials and intelligence chiefs.

Victory Day, the most important event of the year for Putin

But even before the drone attack on the Kremlin, there were signs of concern among the Russian leadership about the holiday amid fears of possible Ukrainian attacks.

At least six Russian regions, including Crimea, which was illegally annexed in 2014, have abandoned traditional demonstrations. Victory Day, when Russians celebrate the end of what they call the “Great Patriotic War” in 1945, has gradually become central to Vladimir Putin’s vision of Russian identity during his 23 years in office.

The carefully organized Victory Parades, which take place across the country, are traditionally an opportunity for the Kremlin to demonstrate Russia’s modern military might.

“For Putin, this is by far the most important event of the year,” said Andriy Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Putin derives all his legitimacy from the parade, positioning himself as the direct successor of the army that defeated Nazi Germany,” the analyst explained.

Considering its importance for the Kremlin, the Moscow parade could not be canceled, Kolesnikov claims. “This is also Putin’s chance to show the nation that he is still strong and in control of the so-called special military operation in Ukraine,” he added.

But on the eve of May 9, Russia looks far from victorious in a war that was originally expected to last several weeks. Moscow’s winter-spring offensive on a 260-kilometer arc in eastern Ukraine brought the country minimal gains with huge losses.

Some Western officials estimate that more than 20,000 Russian soldiers have died fighting in Ukraine since December alone, as Kyiv, backed by modern Western weaponry, is expected to soon launch its own offensive to recapture territory lost last year.

PHOTO: Handout / AFP / Profimedia

Wagner’s mercenary boss overshadows the Kremlin holiday

Adding to the Kremlin’s concern, mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin on Thursday released an unusual video, laced with insults, in which he personally blames the military command in Moscow for the losses of his fighters in Ukraine.

In a separate message, Prigozhin also announced that his Wagner troops would leave the city of Bakhmut on May 10, that is, the day after the Victory Parade. Meanwhile, he must have backed off, making it clear that he had succeeded in getting what he wanted: more ammunition for his mercenaries.

In the cities where the parades will be held, experts say that close observation of the celebrations is likely to show the strain and damage the war has taken on the military.

“Most military parades will only have recruits marching because all the contract troops are in Ukraine,” said Dara Masikot, senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation.

“With so many ground forces deployed in Ukraine, some regions will have to be creative and involve military instructors and other personnel in a more important role to create the appearance of normalcy,” Masikot added.

The “Immortal Regiment” will not march in the May 9 parade

At the same time, this year, one of the most famous events on May 9 – the so-called “Immortal Regiment” procession – was canceled, during which people march with portraits of their relatives who participated in the Second World War.

One explanation for the move, Masiko said, is that the authorities fear the procession could end up highlighting the real number of Russian casualties in Ukraine, with relatives bringing portraits of those killed in the current war.

Kolesnikov also says that on Tuesday, Putin is likely to draw historical parallels between the two wars, falsely portraying Ukraine as a successor to Nazi Germany.

During last year’s speech at the Victory Parade, he said that the Russian army is fighting in Ukraine “so that there is no more place in the world for traitors, criminals and Nazis.”

“Victory will be ours, as in 1945,” Putin declared at the time. But despite the Kremlin’s attempts to portray the war as an existential battle for the country’s survival, there are signs that some in the country are still unwilling to sacrifice their own well-being for what the Kremlin says is a greater cause.

PHOTO: Oleksandr Zemlanychenko / AP – The Associated Press / Profimedia

Russians would not want to pay for Vladimir Putin’s war

According to the latest survey by the independent sociological institute “Levada”, the majority of Russians do not want to give 1,000-2,000 rubles a month (11-21 euros) to help the military in Ukraine.

The same survey found that “anxiety” and “fear” were the emotions most often mentioned when respondents were asked about the new military draft law, which makes it harder for young men to evade the draft by automatically barring registered recruits from leaving the country.

“The nation has adapted to the realities of war,” Kolesnikov said. “But this does not mean that people are ready to sacrifice everything. If there is an opportunity to stay away, they will gladly take advantage of it,” the Russian expert believes.

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