– The most recent important development is the fact that the Russians did not achieve the objectives of their winter offensive, despite huge losses. A few days ago, a representative of the US national security adviser noted that during the winter offensive, the Russians lost 100,000 people (including the wounded). 20,000 of them died on the battlefield, and Russian troops have yet to capture Bakhmut, Avdiivka, let alone the rest of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which were Vladimir Putin’s stated targets.

So, the Russians once again failed to cope with their tasks, as they did throughout the last year, when it came to the battles near Kiev, the Battle of Kharkov, the Battles of Sumy and Chernigov and the Battle of Kherson.

Since February last year, Russian troops have suffered huge losses. The reinforcements were massive but poorly trained and equipped. They have not been trained at the unit level.

As for the counterattack that everyone is expecting, and where the nine new armored brigades that Ukraine says it has created will be used, probably the plan will be to cut the land line that the Russians have, that is, the line that connects Russia with Crimea along the southeast coast of Ukraine. And I think that we will see very impressive results. I believe that for the first time in this war, Ukraine will achieve combined arms results.

It will combine infantry-supported armored vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as artillery, mortars and sappers to overcome obstacles, and demining units. Also critical is the role of air defense to keep the Russian Air Force from maneuvering its units with electronic warfare that will jam Russian command and control systems.

All of these various capabilities will be coupled with a larger logistical response, i.e. additional ammunition, food, fuel, water, medical support and then, most importantly, a follow-on force that will support ground gains and the momentum achieved by forward elements. when the movement of these elements is now at its peak. And this peak will come about 72-96 hours after very heavy fighting, when the soldiers will no longer be able to advance further, and they will suffer some losses in weapons systems and personnel.

I think the Ukrainian counter-attack will break the Russian lines, especially since the Russian concept of defense, as we understand it, is that they should retreat to their defensive lines in the southeast, and then to several lines in the south. And this is a very difficult maneuver even for their best, most well-trained and equipped forces.

Since February last year, Russian troops have suffered huge losses. The reinforcements were massive but poorly trained and equipped. They have not been trained at the unit level. So I think what we’re going to see is pretty impressive. Obviously, it is very important that the Ukrainian counterattack is successful. This is important not only for the battlefield, but also for Kyiv, as well as for European and American capitals. This is also important for Moscow, where Vladimir Putin currently still believes that the Russians can defeat the Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans, and they need to be proven wrong.

– I do not see any conflict in these areas, neither physical nor military. We certainly see elements of the Wagner group operating in various African countries, as well as in Syria and Libya. We see attempts to drive a wedge between some of the Balkan countries and the rest of Europe, and also attempts to drive a wedge between Europe and North America. So, of course, Putin will do everything possible to undermine the extraordinary unity that has emerged in NATO since February 24 last year.

The irony here is that while Putin intended to make Russia great again, he actually made NATO great again. Besides, no one has done more for the cause of Ukrainian nationalism than Vladimir Putin.

I remember the superiority of the Greek army in Afghanistan

– I think that every Turkish leader will do what most leaders do, that is, he will choose his country. For many decades, there has always been some awkwardness in relations between Turkey and NATO, Turkey with other NATO members, for example, with Greece. You know, Turkey is in a rather key position, literally between the West and the East. It has always been between NATO and the Soviet Union, then NATO and Russia and the former Soviet republics. It is in a very difficult neighborhood and often makes choices that seem illogical, at least from the point of view of some NATO countries. But again, this behavior is not unique to NATO. Consider the relationship that some NATO members in Eastern Europe have had with Russia over the years.

This is a difficult, uncomfortable, embarrassing, frustrating, and sometimes crazy situation in which we must exercise some patience in taking action. Of course, there were also moments, for example, when the US decided to block Turkey’s access to the F-35 due to the purchase of a Russian air defense system. But then again, this is not unique in the world. This is just one of the many challenges on the planet for NATO, NATO members, the US and the Western world.

– Returning to the second part of the question, if Erdogan has to choose between NATO and Russia, what will he choose?

He will choose Turkey. This will then force him again to try to put one foot in NATO and the other – or at least in relations – with Russia, which he did. And by the way, in a sense, this was not bad, because it was relations with Russia that allowed mediation in an export agreement on the export of Ukrainian and Black Sea grain.

So that’s why NATO allows Turkey and Erdogan to behave like this?

– Again, NATO has clearly suffered a number of disappointments with Turkey, but its geostrategic position is critical. The bases that we have in Turkey are essential. And so NATO, when it comes to its relationship with Turkey, has repeatedly shown a certain degree of patience and frustration.

– Many believe that the impending defeat of Erdogan in the elections will lead to panic. Is there a possibility of a new crisis in the Aegean? And if so, how will NATO react?

– Where this question comes up, all I would like to say here is that I am almost sure that all the leaders in NATO, in the EU, in Washington and in other capitals are thinking about various possibilities and possible contingencies and they are preparing for how they might react. But again, I won’t go into details. Given my previous positions in government, they are too sensitive to analyze.

Of course, I must mention that during my recent trip to Athens, I met with the head of the armed forces, General Floros, one of the best military commanders of NATO, as well as with the Minister of National Defense and recalled the superiority of the Greek forces that were part of the coalition in Afghanistan, the commander which I was.