The last time the Kremlin was the target of enemy aircraft during the battle for it. Moscow (September 1941 – January 1942), when the Nazis approached the capital of the USSR at 15–20 km. That’s what everyone knew until last Wednesday morning, when Russian social media uploaded shocking videos showing two drones blowing up in the middle of the night over the Senate building in the Kremlin, one of the most secure places in the world.

While we may never know for sure who is behind this incident, it is predicted that its consequences for the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be dramatic.

Is it right to be skeptical about the serious accusation of Moscow of a “terrorist action”? Kyiv with the intent to kill him Vladimir Putin. Judging by what we read in the Russian and foreign media, the Russian president rarely sleeps within the walls of the Kremlin, and certainly not in the attic of the Senate building. Kyiv’s version of a deliberate Russian provocation to justify military atrocities against it seems equally unlikely. Ukrainian.

Sabotage

Even in moments of despair, it would never occur to a fundamentally rational leadership to take a step that would cause a real shock to the people and the military, showing how vulnerable even the heart of Russian power is.

In addition, killings and sabotage had taken place on Russian soil in previous months, causing a wave. In August, a bomb blast in Moscow killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of a nationalist intellectual. In October, a truck bomb exploded in the Kerch bridge that connects it. Crimea with Russia. In April, a well-known nationalist blogger was killed in St. Petersburg. According to the Russian media, in recent months, sabotage by Ukrainian sabotage groups, as well as Russian opponents of Putin and the war, took place in the border regions of Russia.

Given this, no one can rule out the possibility that this was an attack designed not to take the life of the Russian president, but to undermine the morale of the Russians and boost the morale of the Ukrainians, at a time when the war is moving towards a climax. . critical, perhaps even decisive, turning point: the long-awaited Ukrainian counterattack.

Fears of a sharp escalation of bloodshed after the mysterious incident with a drone over the Kremlin.

Conditions at the moment looked reassuring for the Ukrainian camp, at least as reassuring as they could have expected when this very harsh winter set in. The stormy waves of Russian attacks on the eastern front of Donbass have brought few territorial gains with very high human losses. The Ukrainians still control part of Bakhmut and almost all of Avdovka, two towns that have been hotspots of a frozen front for five months.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby reported that Russian losses during this period reached 100,000, including 20,000 killed (half regular army and half Wagner mercenaries).

Whatever the reasons for doubting the credibility of the American intelligence agencies, the very high price paid by the Russians, especially Bahamut, is recognized by their own people and, above all, by the founder of Wagner, Evgeny Prigozhin.

So far, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been held up by muddy ground from melting snow and unusually heavy spring rains that risk paralyzing and making easy targets for the newly acquired tanks from the West that Kiev has high hopes for. As the ground gradually hardens and Ukrainian soldiers, winter-trained in the UK, Poland and elsewhere, return to the front, the counter-offensive looks set to take weeks, if not days.

While no one can predict where firepower will be concentrated along the 800-kilometer line of contact, some analysts believe that the southern region of Zaporozhye will be the most critical front. Here, the Ukrainians hope to recapture territory that would create a wedge to the Sea of ​​Azov, cutting Russian-controlled areas in two and creating a foothold that would also threaten Crimea.

This is, of course, a very risky undertaking. The Russians had 13 to 14 months to consolidate their positions in the newly acquired territories, and in any conflict the aggressor must be prepared for heavy losses. However, Volodymyr Zelensky is in a hurry, as he feels that his situation dictates “now or never.” Freezing the front and turning the war into a protracted positional war is beneficial to the stronger ones, namely Russia, and will probably lead to the second territorial mutilation of Ukraine after what happened in 2014.

cracks

Moreover, the front of cracks praised by the West is starting to crack. The Europeans and Japanese are rejecting an American proposal for a total embargo on Russian exports, and the governments of Poland, Romania and other eastern countries, among Kiev’s most vocal supporters, have imposed an embargo on imports of (cheaper) agricultural products from Ukraine to appease their angry peasant voters.

If the Ukrainian counter-offensive drags on or does not produce the expected results, the possibility of a ceasefire brokered by neutral countries, proposed by the president, will most likely be on the agenda. Lula Brazil. The first word, of course, will be with the leader of China Xi Jinpingwho made the first move last week when he called Mr. Zelensky. But before we get there, the most violent phase of the war will probably intervene. The statement by Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev that the alleged attack on the Kremlin leaves no choice but to “exterminate” Zelensky and “his cabal” is an extremely ominous omen.