General Mark Hertling, the former commander of US forces in Europe, believes that the long-awaited Ukrainian offensive will be a huge success, but also says that we should not expect a spectacular change on the front.

“I believe that Ukraine’s future offensive will be extremely successful tactically and perhaps even operationally,” he explained in a series of posts on his Twitter page.

We remind you that in military language, it is customary to divide offensive/defensive actions or battles into 3 levels depending on their scale: tactical, operational and strategic.

Hertling states that the new phase that Ukrainian forces will enter when the offensive begins “will not be represented by big arrows on the maps”, thus suggesting that the action will not have a strategic scope.

“It will be a tough battle, when the newly formed Ukrainian units (for the first time) will break through the prepared Russian defensive positions with combined forces. This new stage of the campaign will be very different,” he emphasizes.

Winter is not like summer, and offensive actions are not like defensive actions

Hertling, the former head of US Europe and Africa Command from 2011 to 2012, says he thinks Ukrainian forces will do even better than before, while Russian forces will continue to be bad, though not as stupid as they have been in months past. .

“This is partly due to the change in roles (offense versus defense, and the time each spends on preparation),” he explains, adding that both Ukrainian and Russian forces are currently trying to figure out what the enemy’s capabilities are.

“Be skeptical of those who are looking for big, huge steps or rapid progress,” Hertling added, noting that while such impressive actions could happen in some parts of the front, the big challenge for both sides will be logistics. .

It will be critical for Ukrainian forces to be able to sustain the offensive and exploit any gaps that develop, while for the forces sent by Vladimir Putin to Ukraine it will be critical to maintain defensive lines and be able to quickly deliver munitions to vulnerable points.

“Here, I think Ukraine will do better than Russia because of thorough preparation,” says the American general, emphasizing that the side that will be better prepared will win.

However, he warns that this new phase of the conflict will be the most difficult for both sides and that the inspiration of the military commands in Moscow and Kyiv will also play a decisive role.

New military changes in Moscow, preparation for the Ukrainian offensive?

Hertling’s comments came after Russian President Vladimir Putin last week fired General Mykhailo Mizintsev, the deputy defense minister in charge of logistics and military supply, after being appointed to the post last September.

However, it is not clear to what extent this decision was motivated by real military concerns about the results achieved by Mizintiev, who was nicknamed the “Mariupol Butcher” due to orders given during the siege of the port city, or whether he was used as a scapegoat for the ammunition problems that Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Wagner’s mercenaries, said.

In a fresh attack on the leadership in Moscow, Prigozhin on Monday condemned the “rogue bureaucrats” who were responsible for the problem, again accusing it of being unresolved.

In a nearly 90-minute video interview with Russian military blogger Semyon Pegov on Saturday, Prigozhin threatened to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut, saying his mercenaries only had a few days’ worth of ammunition left.

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