Only a few months ago in Western capitals – and in Athens – there were fears of a military escalation between Greece and Türkiye on the way to Turkish elections, comments dr. Ronald Mainardus, political analyst and principal researcher at ELIAMEP, in his article in Deutsche Welle.

These fears have been fueled by the Turkish President’s endless provocations against Greece and the almost daily violations of Greek sovereignty in the airspace over the Aegean Sea. Erdogan’s “policy of provocations”, as the German diplomat called it, is now a thing of the past. We are witnessing a “turn” in Greek-Turkish relations. More than any other politician in Athens, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias speaks about climate change when he repeatedly calls his Turkish counterpart Cavusoglu “my friend Mevlut” and talks about the “good climate” that exists between the two countries. This happened recently at the Delphi Economic Forum.

“window of opportunity”

The conference in this mythical place, often referred to as the “Davos of the Mediterranean”, has become an important international informal summit, where the main challenges of today are discussed and, as in the case of Greek-Turkish relations, new developments are announced. Although – it could not be otherwise – the issue of Ukraine dominated the agenda, the statements and allusions made about the Greek-Turkish language in Delphi, in my opinion, are even more important for Greek politics.

The bottom line is that after the elections in Turkey and Greece, new internationally coordinated efforts will be made to resolve the differences between the two countries. Whereas last year there was talk of the risk of escalation, now high-ranking Western diplomats are coordinating a window of opportunity. The US and Germany want to play a central role in the new initiative of the West.

The division of tasks between Berlin and Washington was already clear when last December the Germans invited senior diplomats from the two countries to the negotiating table in Brussels after several months of no direct Greek-Turkish communication. Berlin’s secret diplomacy laid the groundwork for the so-called “earthquake diplomacy” launched in the immediate aftermath of the natural disaster in Turkey in early February.

Meanwhile, senior politicians on both sides of the Aegean say a good climate is a prerequisite for starting a new political process. “We will see very serious efforts to resolve the issues after the elections,” US Ambassador to Athens Georges Tsounis said with rare clarity in Delphi. Jens Plötner’s statements are moving in the same direction. An adviser to the German chancellor told Delphi that the elections in both countries “offer a good opportunity for a positive momentum of stability in the region.”

Greek-Turkish Tensions Is Poison for NATO

As if they had reached an agreement, top German and US diplomats added that the mediation offer was, of course, only valid if accepted by the governments in Athens and Ankara. The American ambassador went even further, pointing to “a willingness to compromise” on both sides. “Differences can be resolved,” Tsunis said, because “this is not about relations between Israel and Palestine.”

He then uttered a phrase that the Greek government would rather not hear: “Neither side (meaning neither the Greeks nor the Turks) has a monopoly on what is right and what is wrong.” Western diplomats admit they have not done enough in the past to resolve the Greek-Turkish disputes. The war in Ukraine has created a new situation and once again explains the urgency of the matter.