Last October, when the question of Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye—was brought to the UN, only five countries voted against Moscow’s condemnation: Russia itself, Belarus, North Korea, Syria, and Nicaragua. These four regimes are indeed Vladimir Putin’s closest allies, with Minsk, Pyongyang and Tehran also providing diplomatic and military assistance to Russia. But even Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has so far avoided sending men to the Russian army, despite a defense deal he signed with his Russian counterpart.

If you study the countries that have turned to Moscow, there are many of them. If he also looks at the graphs, he will find that a year after the invasion, the number of countries openly condemning Russian aggression has decreased. A study by the Economist’s EUI research department, which prepares both annual reports and forecasts for the next year, says a decline from 132 to 122 countries in the world within 12 months.

However, China and India, the two most important powers that Russia would like to have on its side, insist on neutrality: for example, in the decisive UN vote for Moscow, they simply abstain. This week, Chinese leader Xi Jinping held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and promised to send a special envoy to the Ukrainian capital, and has already presented a 12-point peace plan to end the war, which Kiev has not rejected. For its part, India does not want to violate US sanctions against Moscow, which will lead to its split with the West. On Wednesday, it was announced that the export of Russian weapons systems to the country was “frozen” due to a currency impasse. Moscow insists it be paid in dollars due to the volatility of the ruble/rupee exchange rate, but New Delhi fears it could face secondary US sanctions aimed at preventing companies and countries from doing business with countries that subject to the regime of primary sanctions.

In terms of population, countries leaning towards Russia are superior, in terms of economic power, however, countries that support Ukraine, led by the United States, are overwhelmingly stronger.

On the list of countries that have abandoned the pro-Western camp and joined neutrality, the star is Turkey, which supplied Kiev with valuable Bayraktar drones but evaded compliance with Western sanctions against Moscow. With such an ambivalent attitude, he managed to become an intermediary between the two countries and play an important role in concluding an agreement on Ukrainian grain. At the same time, since it has not closed its airspace to Russian aircraft, it has become a favorite destination for Russian dissidents and defectors.

Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from the EIU study is Russia’s growing influence in Africa. In some countries that have made a pro-Russian turn, the Wagner group is active, such as in Mali and Libya, while a mercenary group is said to be playing a role in the recent crisis in Sudan. According to a recent article in the Washington Post, the goal of Wagner, a close associate of Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is to create a confederation of anti-Western states on the continent, causing instability. “Wagner is an unstoppable force in Africa, expanding its presence and expanding its ambitions on the continent, even as the war in Ukraine becomes the all-consuming concern of the Kremlin,” writes the Washington Post.

The countries that leaned toward Russia last year may have more population in terms of economic power, but the countries backing Ukraine, led by the US, are overwhelmingly stronger. This is also reflected in military aid to Kiev: America alone has provided the country with $33 billion worth of training and equipment since the start of the war, and another 50 allied countries have made similar commitments worth $13 billion over the past six months. .