“Whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the man who has dominated Turkey’s political scene for over 20 years, once said. As you know, Erdogan became widely known when he became mayor of Istanbul in 1994.

Therefore, when in 2019 the candidate for mayor of this city from his party, Binali Yildirim, lost to Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan took it personally. Instead of accepting the result, Erdogan pressured Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council to annul the vote and repeat the election three months later. Nevertheless, the opposition won again, this time by a large margin, so Erdogan was forced to accept the result.

Four years later, Turkish citizens are heading to the polls, and any predictions about the final result look difficult, as the latest polls show a tie between Erdogan and his opponent.

A united opposition alliance backing Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, inflation, a currency crisis and scandals following the devastating February earthquakes have put Erdoğan in a difficult position ahead of the first round of voting on May 14. If none of the candidates gets 50% of the votes, the top two will face off in the second round on May 28.

“It’s not only smart,” says Eurasia Group, a political consulting firm. “Maybe”. The result by a wide margin would be acceptable to all parties. But if Erdogan loses by a narrow margin, he will likely hold a repeat election. However, knowing that he will likely lose a second time, he will create a crisis to improve his chances of re-election, according to the EG Turkey research team.

EG predicts that in the event of a minor defeat, Erdogan will demand the annulment of the results – which the Supreme Electoral Council can refuse – and call his supporters to the streets of Turkey’s largest cities. We could see barricades in public buildings, including the parliament, and police dealing with protesters both for and against Erdogan.

The Turkish military, which has undergone massive purges since the failed coup against Erdogan in 2016, will try to remain neutral, so everything will depend on the ability and willingness of the police to maintain order.

The period leading up to possible repeat elections could be dangerously unpredictable, although the opposition, according to the Eurasian Group, is likely to focus more on defeating the president by a larger margin, as in Istanbul four years ago, than on demonstrations.

Source: G-zero