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Can China replace the US in the Middle East?

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Can China replace the US in the Middle East?

On April 6, the first meeting of the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran took place in seven years. A month earlier, top national security officials from the two countries restored diplomatic ties after years of feuding.

But the meetings that led to the above event did not take place in the Middle East. They were accepted by China after many years of unsuccessful attempts by Oman and Iraq.

At the same time, China played an important role in preventing the collapse of the Russian economy due to sanctions imposed by Western countries after the invasion of Ukraine.

Against this backdrop, experts say Beijing’s newfound success as a peacekeeper in the Middle East marks a change in the position of a country that has traditionally been reluctant to intervene in efforts to resolve global conflicts.

In February, shortly before the conclusion of the Iranian-Saudi talks, Beijing launched the Global Security Initiative with the aim of “peacefully resolving disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation.”

Just last week, China’s new foreign minister, Qin Gang, said Beijing was ready to mediate peace talks between Israel and Palestine.

The Saudi-Iranian deal could serve as “a springboard for future initiatives” by China, said Julia Gurol-Haler, a research fellow at the Arnold Bergstrasser Institute Freiburg in Germany.

All this comes at a time when, according to many analysts, the influence of the United States – traditionally the most powerful player in the Middle East – is declining.

The short answer is that despite China’s rapidly growing influence, it has yet to replace the US in the Middle East, where Washington has dozens of military bases and allies it has pledged to protect. But Beijing may not want to take on this responsibility anyway, experts say.

Trade connections

China is the main trading partner of Saudi Arabia and Iran and the largest buyer of oil from these two countries. In recent years, he has further strengthened this relationship by signing a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran in 2021 and a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with Saudi Arabia in 2022.

But these relationships extend beyond Saudi Arabia and Iran, thanks in large part to the massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013, which aims to connect Asia, Europe and Africa through a network of ports, railroads, highways and other infrastructure projects. supported by China.

Between 2005 and 2022, China has invested more than $273 billion in the region. He is the largest investor in the Middle East. It also buys oil from Iraq, natural gas from Qatar and exports weapons to Algeria, Morocco, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He is helping Egypt build a new capital outside of Cairo and has built a metro network in Mecca.

Meanwhile, China’s rapid progress in advanced technology in recent years means Beijing can offer access to services like 5G connectivity through companies like Huawei.

All of this gives China automatic influence in the region, says Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Government, a Washington-based think tank. According to him, this influence allowed Beijing to succeed in relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran where previous negotiations failed. The countries of the region want to stay on the side of China for economic reasons.

At the same time, Beijing is seen as an ideologically neutral trading partner that has long adhered to a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of Middle Eastern countries, from politics to human rights, which makes it a less controversial mediator than countries like the United States.

Of course, despite the image China wants to project in comparison to the US, it has embarked on a dramatic upgrade and expansion of its military capabilities in recent years, as it often demonstrates. In 2017, the People’s Liberation Army built its first overseas military base in Djibouti, near the Strait of Hormuz.

Four years later, the Wall Street Journal reported that China was possibly building a naval base in the United Arab Emirates, but that plan was canceled after US intervention.

However, Zakiye Yazdanshenas, director of the China-Middle East Project at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, said China’s track record does not yet indicate a US-style commitment to the region.

“Beijing has neither the ability nor the desire to have a military presence like the US in the region, but it is trying to expand its influence in the Middle East and especially in the Persian Gulf,” he told Al Jazeera.

Source: Al Jazira

Author: newsroom

Source: Kathimerini

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