Joe Biden’s path to the 2024 presidential election is full of pitfalls.

86 years old

The first is the most obvious: the Democratic president who formally announced his candidacy today is already the oldest person elected in the United States. And now, in his 80s, he is asking Americans to give him the keys to the White House until he is 86 years old.

Medical examinations he underwent in November 2021 and February 2023 indicated that he was in “good condition” and that he was “fit” to carry out his duties.

But Joe Biden, who has a habit of slurring in recent years, whose face and demeanor have no doubt been disfigured by the intervening years, should expect a resurgence in Republican attacks on his mental faculties.

This is the moment when he embarks on a difficult task: to carry out a campaign with constant movements, while fulfilling the duties of one of the most complex offices in the world.

In the meantime, he prefers to answer questions about his age with a laconic “look at me”, inviting critics to “see” his actions or resorting to jokes.

“I am at the end of my career, not at the beginning,” Joe Biden told the Dublin Parliament, appreciating that over the years he has gained “a bit of wisdom.”

“I have more experience than any other president in American history. It doesn’t make me better or worse, but it gives me some insights,” he continued.

Trump…or not Trump?

Joe Biden has never hidden that his preferred opponent for 2024 is Donald Trump, who has already started his campaign. Because he has already beaten him, because the 76-year-old former Republican president is the perfect scarecrow in the eyes of the Democrats, and, finally, because the billionaire will have to balance his election schedule and his legal adventures.

But the 80-year-old Democrat will have to adjust his campaign if another younger, if not more moderate candidate emerges, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis.

Of course, Joe Biden may think the statistics are on his side: American presidents usually run for re-election and usually get re-elected.

But the 80-year-old president, by virtue of his age, defies historical precedents.

International risks

Any escalation in relations with Beijing, for example, over Taiwan, on the eve of the presidential election, could undermine the election campaign of Joe Biden, who has built his foreign policy on rivalry with China.

At the same time, if the American president has so far succeeded in rallying not only Westerners, but also American public opinion in favor of Ukraine, what will happen in a year or two? Mostly in front of the Republican opposition, which controls one of the two houses of Congress and has promised not to give Kyiv “blanche”.

There are other threats: North Korean aggression, Iran’s nuclear program…

The “landing” of the American economy

So far, all indications are that the world’s leading economic power is heading for a “soft landing”: growth that slows without triggering an unemployment boom.

But a recession is not entirely out of the question, and the US remains clearly vulnerable to an exogenous shock: international conflict, a new pandemic, an energy shock, financial collapse…

And this at a time when the Republican opposition is determined to use all possible leverage to cancel Joe Biden’s financial plan, even at the risk of default.

Family

Joe Biden has gone through many trials on a personal level: the death of his first wife and their child in 1972, then the death of his eldest son Beau in 2015 from cancer. Today he is even closer to his family, and his wife Jill Biden is his main support.

His campaign will rely heavily on the support of his own. He may be weakened by attacks on his youngest son, Hunter, who has struggled with addiction in the past and whose past dealings have been criticized by Republicans.

Through these tragedies, Joe Biden has gained undeniable confidence in his ability to bounce back and defy predictions about his political future. But he also says he has learned to humble himself in the face of such blows: “I have great respect for fate,” he often says in recent months.

Source: APE-MPE, AFP.