“Türkiye has become a major player in the global financial system.” Tayyip Erdogan accompanied the inauguration of the International Financial Center (IFC) in the Asian side of Istanbul last Monday with such laudatory statements. The huge $3.4 billion construction project, with about 1.5 million square meters of office space and parking space capable of holding 26,500 cars, aims to become, he says, “a new ecosystem that will connect three continents.” It was one of the pharaonic projects, followed by the start of exploitation of the Sakarya natural gas field in the Black Sea, which the Turkish president pulled out of his sleeve last week, in the last period of time before the double elections, presidential and parliamentary. May 14.

In fact, the gleaming glass-and-steel towers shown on television were something of a modern-day version of “Potemkin villages,” the colorful facades of houses said to have been built by Russia’s Grand Admiral and Catherine the Great’s lover to make her impression. with a deceptively idyllic picture of new imperial possessions. For the most part, the sprawling office space was empty, as many foreign investors had long since left due to the dangerous turmoil in the Turkish economy. Unfortunately for the president, the day after his inauguration, the hryvnia fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since the introduction of the new Turkish lira in January 2005 (19.6 to 1).

Tayyip Erdogan somehow imagined the atmosphere of this year’s match, which is generally considered the most critical of his 20 years in power. Five months before the 100th anniversary of Kemal Atatürk’s founding of a secular Turkish Republic on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire, the ceremonial re-election of a sultan-president would cement his hegemonic role in neo-Ottoman Turkey, which the 69-year-old leader and his AKP Islamic party have built. This symbolism was also served by the choice of a significant May 14 for the elections. On May 14, 1950, Adnan Menderes, an inspiration to Erdogan, defeated the Kemals and became the first Turkish prime minister to take office after a multi-party election.

The runaway gallop of inflation, reaching 50.51% on an annualized basis, is putting strong pressure on the middle class and working class.

However, the big economic turmoil with the liquidation of deposits due to the free fall of the pound sterling and the runaway precision, with inflation reaching 50.51% year on year, is now putting a lot of pressure not only on the middle class, but also on the working class, who have improved their position in previous years. Added to this were the devastating earthquakes in February that exposed the violation of earthquake protection rules for profit, exposing the tangled relationship between AKP officials and Anatolian construction companies. Although nothing has been decided yet, the alliance of six opposition parties stands a good chance of defeating the ruling AKP coalition and the MHP nationalists in the parliamentary elections. But also in the presidential elections, the average of the last nine polls gives Kemal CHP candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu a 4.5-point lead over Tayyip Erdogan (48.3% vs. 43.8%).

Without any of the political charisma and ability to communicate directly with the people, which his opponent undoubtedly possesses, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, with his low tone and polite manner, tries to convince his compatriots that if he wins, they are (finally) a “normal” president . The return to normality is primarily about the economy, where he intends to end the AKP’s unorthodox policies by raising interest rates to stabilize the currency and re-engaging foreign investors. This also applies to the state, as it has pledged to revise the constitution, abolishing the powers of the president established by Erdogan and securing the independence of the central bank, the judiciary and the diplomatic corps. In addition, he will release two iconic prisoners, businessman Osman Kavala and pro-Kurdish HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas, sending a signal to the international community that Turkey intends to become a “normal” democracy. Finally, the return to orthodoxy also applies to foreign policy, where Kılıçdaroglu seeks to close the split opened by Erdogan in relations with the United States and resume negotiations with Brussels on his country’s accession to the EU.

However, quite a few people inside and outside of Turkey have strong doubts about the “normality” promised by the 74-year-old politician. On the economic front, a policy of sharply raising interest rates to support the currency without measures to redistribute wealth and public investment will lead to business closures and a sharp rise in unemployment. “By abandoning the left and embracing the neo-liberal positions of his political allies, Kemal Kilicdaroglu could distance himself from the working class and lose the election,” the US magazine Foreign Policy wrote in a recent analysis. On the political front, his HDP proposal to win Kurdish votes has brought his alliance with Meral Aksener’s nationalist party to the brink of collapse. Finally, in foreign policy, disagreements with Erdogan (especially over the Eastern Mediterranean and Greece) are more in style and less in substance, while his European powers stand little chance of finding recipients as the important countries of Eastern Europe .E. how France and Austria do not even think about the full integration of Turkey, whoever its leader may be.

Moreover, Tayyip Erdogan, despite the weight added to his shoulders over the past 20 years, remains a fierce opponent on the election balconies, with great stamina in the last leg of the contest. Poll firms and foreign analysts failed in the previous 2018 elections when they predicted a second derby with Kemalist candidate Muharrem Ince. As a result, Erdogan knocked out of the fight from the first round with a margin of 10 points. Moreover, having built an entire authoritarian regime and given the strong polarization of Turkish society, the Turkish president knows that in case of defeat, he is likely to face criminal prosecution and prison if he does not leave for Qatar in time. So there is no doubt that he will use any means, honest or dishonest, to win or “win”. He does not forget, moreover, that the hero of Adnan Menderes, ten years after his historic victory over the Kemals, was hanged along with his leading ministers on the island of Imrali.