Will Lukashenka again use migrants to negotiate with the EU?
Judging by the statistics, a new round of the migration crisis on Belarus’ borders with EU member states is already beginning. The latter this time will try to punish Minsk financially – Lithuania intends to sue him for 120 million euros in damages.
Influx of migrants to Poland and calm on the border with Lithuania
Gennady Korshunov, a senior fellow at the Center for New Ideas, notes that Alexander Lukashenko uses migrants as a political weapon, one of the few tools available to raise the stakes in the fight against the West.
“Lukashenko will continue to use migrants for political bargaining, the main issue is the lifting of sanctions, especially on potassium fertilizers,” believes the expert. So, in March, Polish border guards did not let more than 2.5 thousand migrants into their territory, which is twice as much as at the beginning of the year. “This is a record for the last 16 months,” says Korshunov. “The highest rates occurred only at the height of the crisis, at the end of 2021.”
According to the sociologist, this is how Minsk responds to Warsaw’s decision to close the border crossing at Berestovitsa and to the demand for the release of political prisoner Andrei Pachobut. Against this background, a completely different attitude of Belarus towards Lithuania stands out. On the border with him – unlike Belarusian-Polish – now there is complete calm. In winter, it so happened that for weeks there was not a single attempt to illegally cross the border of the Republic of Belarus. “It can be assumed that this is due to Lukashenka’s hope for the resumption of exports of Belarusian potash by Lithuania”, clarifies Gennady Korshunov.
In his opinion, in 2021 Lukashenka hoped that the migration crisis he had created Divided Europe – and so the Belarusian ruler will receive political recognition. “However, he miscalculated,” notes Korshunov. “European politicians have shown determination and consolidation, the pressure of sanctions has only intensified.”
Illegal immigrants will continue to be placed at the border
For its part, the State Border Committee of the Republic of Belarus claims that since the beginning of 2023, “attempts to illegally expel more than 4.5 thousand people to Belarus have been suppressed.” And he predicts that “with the onset of warm weather, organizers of illegal migration will become more active”.
Poland and Lithuania are concerned about the organization of direct flights from Iran to Minsk and are preparing for the fact that this will lead to the emergence of new migration flows. Lithuanian authorities say they will continue to send illegal migrants, the country’s parliament has already changed the laws on the border and the status of foreigners. “The whole region must follow a similar legal regulation – the loopholes will mean that it is convenient to continue the pressure,” the BNS said, quoting Lithuanian Interior Minister Agne Bilotaite.
The experience of Poland and Lithuania has shown that, in the case of a massive influx of migrants, one of the effective deterrents is a fence. On the border of Lithuania with Belarus, it stretched for 502 km (the total length of the border is 679 km), on the border of Poland with the Republic of Belarus – for 186 km (its total length is 398 km). In Latvia, the completion of the construction of fences on the border with Belarus is scheduled for one year, totaling 150 km (the total length of the border is 173 km).
For the first time, Belarus can be sued by the International Court of Justice
In addition, Vilnius intends to financially punish Belarus – Lithuania is preparing a lawsuit before the International Court of Justice on Minsk’s violation of the Protocol to the Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, which prohibits the smuggling of migrants. The Lithuanian authorities have already calculated the amount of compensation they demand – 120 million euros. However, the procedure for resolving such disputes and considering claims is not easy, explains international lawyer Yekaterina Deykalo.
First, negotiations between the two countries must take place. If it is not possible to reach an agreement, then arbitration can be resorted to – but this requires the consent of the parties, which is hardly expected from Belarus. “If within six months it was not possible to reach an agreement on the issue with arbitration, you can appeal to the International Court of Justice”, continues Deikalo. “Consideration of the case can be postponed, as soon as possible – two years, sometimes the process drags on for seven years.”
If Lithuania goes through all the above steps, this will be the first case against Belarus brought before the International Court of Justice. Will your authorities be able to ignore the claims? “In the entire history of the International Court of Justice, there have been no such cases,” says Ekaterina Deikalo. “Belarus can be judged for not taking measures to prevent illegal migration, as well as for organizing it.”
If the International Court of Justice decides that Minsk has violated the said convention, Lithuania may bring material claims. In case of refusal of Belarus to pay compensation, another court is possible – on its forced collection. According to Deikalo, there were only two examples of this type in the history of the International Court of Justice, in other cases the countries agreed.
At the same time, the court, if any, will consider the actions of the state, and not Alexander Lukashenko, so Belarus will bear possible responsibility even after the change of power. “However, the decision could become an additional argument against the Lukashenka regime and possible future prosecutions that will concern him personally and other officials who violated human rights,” concluded Deikalo.
Source: DW
Anna White is a journalist at 247 News Reel, where she writes on world news and current events. She is known for her insightful analysis and compelling storytelling. Anna’s articles have been widely read and shared, earning her a reputation as a talented and respected journalist. She delivers in-depth and accurate understanding of the world’s most pressing issues.