A classified document obtained by The New York Times and believed to be among those leaked from the Pentagon shows that American intelligence also outlined contingency scenarios a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The scenarios include the death of Volodymyr Zelenskyi or Vladimir Putin.

The document is called an analysis by the Defense Intelligence Service, which presents four “extreme” scenarios and how they could affect the course of the war in Ukraine. Among the hypothetical scenarios: the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the removal of the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces and Ukraine’s attack on the Kremlin.

The document notes that the war is likely to be protracted and describes how each “extreme” scenario could potentially lead to an escalation in Ukraine, a negotiated end to the conflict, or no significant impact on the war’s trajectory.

The scenario document is a fairly typical product of special services. It is designed to help military officers, politicians or lawmakers think through the possible outcomes of important events while evaluating their options, The New York Times explains, News.ro reports.

The document is marked “RELIDO”, which indicates that the decision to release information – for example, to foreign partners – is made by a certain high-ranking official. It is dated February 24th and marked “ONE YEAR”, indicating that the analysis was probably done a year after the invasion began.

Four extreme scenarios

1) “Ukraine is hitting the Kremlin”

One of the four hypothetical scenarios describes what could happen if Ukraine strikes the Kremlin. A wide range of potential consequences has been identified. The event could escalate, with Putin responding to public outrage by launching a large-scale military mobilization and considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Or, on the contrary, the fears of the population may prompt the Russian leader to negotiate a settlement of the war.

The Biden administration would be particularly concerned about a possible Ukrainian attack on Moscow, as it could trigger a dramatic escalation from Russia. The risk of such an attack from Ukraine is one of the reasons why the United States is reluctant to supply Kiev with longer-range missiles, the NYT notes.

2) “Putin fires leading military advisers”

If Vladimir Putin fires his top military advisers and escalates the war, the document suggests the Russian leader could authorize the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Such a situation – also according to the document – can arise in only two situations: if the oligarchs question the decision-making process of Putin and the Russian military, and if they fail to solve the problem of the lack of ammunition. It’s a scenario that seems unlikely at this point.

3) “Zelensky died”

The third scenario concerns the physical disappearance of Volodymyr Zelenskyi. If the leader in Kyiv dies, then in the worst case, European leaders can limit the supply of weapons. However, the document points out how a “senior Ukrainian leader” could also maintain internal and external support. Therefore, there would be a successor, notes The New York Times with reference to the same document.

Conspiracies to kill the Ukrainian president have been discussed many times. According to other documents that have been the subject of leaks in the past, Wagner’s group would have been tasked with killing the Ukrainian president in the first days of the invasion.

4) “Putin is dead”

Regarding the scenario of Vladimir Putin’s death, however, The New York Times does not provide details. The publication only notes that the document describes various possible scenarios, without evaluating which of them may be the most likely.

US officials also warned that the leaked documents are outdated and in many cases no longer match current assessments by various intelligence agencies, the NYT reported.

VICE: Rumors That Putin Has Cancer And Gerasimov And Patrushez Are Sabotaging His War Are In One Of The Leaked Pentagon Papers

Conversely, vice.com claims that other leaked Pentagon documents mention a rumor that Valery Gerasimov and Mykola Patrushev are planning to “undercut” Putin’s war in Ukraine while the Kremlin leader undergoes chemotherapy.

One of the Pentagon briefings, which was photographed in print and then posted online, suggests that the Secretary of the Russian National Security Council, Mykola Patrushev, and the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, have a plan to sabotage Putin while he is undergoing cancer treatment .

According to VICE, the memo is marked “TS//SI//REL TO USA, FVEY/FISA,” which means the document is top secret, was collected through communications surveillance, and can be released to those with security clearances. . top secret documents from the US or other allied countries (“Five Eyes”) and were collected in accordance with the provisions of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which establishes legal parameters for espionage, writes News.ro.

Five Eyes is an intelligence community formed between the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom. The information was available to people in those countries under Top Secret clearance, but this particular memo was designed for senior Pentagon officials, VICE said.

In the document, the origin of the rumor is explained by a Ukrainian official who allegedly had a source with access to Kremlin officials. There is no indication in the documents that the US secret services confirmed the truth of the rumors, but at some point the spy agency, which monitors communications, heard the rumors and decided they should be passed on to representatives of the Pentagon, writes VICE.

• “According to a source who received information from an unidentified Russian source with access to Kremlin officials, Russia planned to divert resources from Taganrog, Russia, to Mariupol, Ukraine, and focus on the southern front,” the document said. .
• “According to the source, the ‘offensive’ plan … is suspected to be a strategy developed by the Secretary of the Russian National Security and Defense Council, Mykola Patrushev, and the head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, to sabotage Putin.” , also says the document, a photocopy of which is reproduced by VICE.

The briefing goes on to talk about long-standing rumors that Putin has cancer: “On February 22, a source indicated that Gerasimov plans to continue his efforts to sabotage the offensive, noting that he has promised to ‘blow up’ the so-called a special military operation around March 5, when Putin was scheduled to begin chemotherapy and thus could not influence military operations.”

The Kremlin does not comment on Putin’s health, but there are long-standing rumors that he has cancer.

A constant presence in state media, Putin sometimes disappears for long periods of time, and foreigners have long assumed that he is being treated for cancer. He is 70 years old, and the Kyiv special services have repeatedly claimed that he is ill, but there is no concrete evidence to support this theory. There is also a popular opinion in Western intelligence circles that Putin is ill and that there is an internal struggle at the highest level of the Kremlin. But to outsiders, these are just rumors and speculations. Without hard evidence and the context of other intelligence documents, it’s impossible to know how reliable the small paragraph in the leaked document is, VICE notes. (Source: News.ro)

It will be recalled that during the last week, several alleged documents of the American army and intelligence, dated February-March, were distributed on social networks, which mostly concern Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and contain details about the plans of the West to support Kyiv.

The documents, whose authenticity has not been confirmed, also suggest that the United States may have spied on some of its closest allies, such as Ukraine, South Korea and Israel.

The revelations would also raise suspicions among US allies about Washington’s ability to keep classified information.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday that the US is taking the leak of these allegedly secret Pentagon documents “very seriously”.

“I can’t say much because the Ministry of Justice is conducting an investigation, but we take this issue very seriously,” the head of the Pentagon said at a press conference.

He also said Washington would continue to work “closely” with its allies and partners and warned that “nothing can stop the Joe Biden administration from guaranteeing the security of the United States.”

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