In textbooks on international relations, the term power is divided into three forms: “hard”, “soft” and “smart”. The international term “smart power” mainly refers to the use of soft means such as diplomacy combined with the exercise of “hard” military power. Today, as the conflict inside Ukraine continues, the “smart power” strategic doctrine of former US Secretary of Defense Joseph Nye has once again come to the fore. “K” talked to a veteran politician, the founder of the idea of ​​”smart power”. An eminent Harvard professor who spent a long time on the American political scene as Deputy Secretary of Defense under Clinton (1994-1995) and head of the National Intelligence Committee (1993-1994), answers the question of the possible outcome of the war against weaken Russia but also the central role that Greece can play.

“Power” is the ability to influence others to get what you want. And you can do it in three ways. This can be done either through coercion, payments or attraction. I call the first two of these tools “hard power” and the third “soft power.” “Soft power” is the ability to get what you want by “pulling” (opponents to your positions), and not by coercion or payment. We often think of deterrence as raising the costs of the adversary so that they outweigh the benefits. And we usually think of it in military terms, as retaliation, or in economic terms, as sanctions. But the use of soft power can also contribute to deterrence. If a country knows it will seriously damage its reputation and lose its ability to engage third parties, this can sometimes contribute to deterrence. We now know that in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, none of these three forms of deterrence worked. So prevention is possible, but not in all cases.

Well, I think both are needed. I use the term “smart power” to refer to the ability to combine “hard” and “soft power” in such a way that they do not cancel each other out, but instead reinforce each other. For example, in the Persian Gulf, the second President Bush used “hard power” without a legalizing UN resolution, which undermined American “soft power”. So this was a case where “hard power” and “soft power” were at odds with each other. On the other hand, his father, the first President Bush, made sure to pass the UN resolution, the Arab League resolution and the inclusion of the Arab armies in his coalition, and, in fact, it was a way to combine “soft power” with “hard power”. “. And that’s what I call “smart power”.

In the post-Putin era, we need to think about how to strengthen ties between Europe and Russia and ensure that Russia is not isolated once and for all.

“Sanctions are a means of power, but they often take a long time and require the cooperation of others. When they are multilateral, sanctions are more effective. In the case of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sanctions have not been as effective in the short term, and part of the problem is that Russia’s main export is oil, which is a highly traded commodity. So as long as oil can still be sold, even at a discount, on world markets and it is sold, then, in fact, this limits the effectiveness of these sanctions. The key question is whether sanctions on technological products transferred to Russia will matter in the long run. And there are many people who believe that over time they will actually weaken Russia. We must remember the case of apartheid in South Africa, where sanctions did not change policy in the short term, but in the long term they helped change it.

– I think what we saw in Ukraine was a tightening of relations between Russia and China. But we also saw that this relationship has limits, in the sense that China did not want to send military equipment to Russia, which would essentially tie it to Russia’s problems, and, moreover, China refrained from various UN resolutions, instead of condemning or support Russia. So I think that Russian-Chinese cooperation will continue, but I don’t think it will get closer. On the other hand, if you look at the alliance between the US and the Europeans in NATO, I think it has been greatly strengthened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO is certainly not what Putin had in mind when he invaded Ukraine. Therefore, I think that NATO is stronger, and the Sino-Russian relations have not changed much, in this sense, Russia is clearly lost in terms of the balance of power.

“Unfortunately, I don’t think we’re close to the end of the war. In fact, neither side is willing to change its goals. Putin has not accepted Ukraine as a legitimate state, and although he has reached a dead end on the battlefield, the weakening of Ukraine helps him achieve his goals. On the other hand, Ukraine wants to return its territories, including those lost in 2014. Therefore, I do not see the basis for successful negotiations in the near future. Now negotiations and war are often determined by the situation on the battlefield, and we do not know if this can change. The Russian winter offensive was not very successful. Let’s see what will happen with the expected spring offensive of Ukraine.

– At some point, we will have to think about how to reintegrate Russia into the international system and how to strengthen its ties with Europe. It is very difficult to imagine how we will do this under Putin in power, but someday there will be a post-Putin Russia. And then it will be important to think about how to increase ties between Europe and Russia, and to make sure that Russia does not find itself in isolation once and for all.

Role of Greece

Greece plays an important role as a partner in NATO. It also plays an important role as a member of the EU. Thus, Greece can operate above its weight as a regional power because it is part of a larger European and Atlantic community that strengthens or multiplies its power. In this sense, the extent to which Greece will continue what it is doing now, that is, play an important role both in Europe and in NATO, seems to me the best way for Greece.

– Can small countries like Greece become regional energy players?

– The discovery of large hydrocarbon deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean has certainly helped Greece in the sense that, although they are not in Greek waters per se, they are, in fact, in a wider area, in an area where Greece can become very important energy center. .