It is said that Europe and, accordingly, the EU become stronger thanks to crises. This is partly true. In fact, sometimes it gets stronger and sometimes it gets weaker. For example, one would have to be very romantic or “Euro-optimist” to claim that the migration crisis of 2015-2016 strengthened Europe. However, during the last two major crises, Europe seems to have overcome many problems. In the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, we saw the “provocation and response” pattern that the historian Arnold Toynbee identified as one of the driving forces of History.

After a slow start, EE has responded to the economic impact of the pandemic with a bold step forward by disbursing more than €750 billion in the Recovery Fund to its member countries through the NextGenerationEU programme. With this move, two stereotypes about the Union collapsed at once. The debt created has been divided among member states, while most of the Recovery Fund’s money will be given as a grant rather than a loan to hardest-hit countries like Italy. European leaders have finally done what they should have done during the 2010 eurozone crisis.

Even more remarkable, however, was the reaction to the war in Ukraine. Despite the desperate efforts of nationalists like Viktor Orban, Europeans have shown their solidarity with ten packages of economic sanctions against Russia. Ukrainian refugees were welcomed. After a slow start – and a slow start is a given when you have a union of 27 essentially autonomous states – the EU is providing Ukraine with 18 billion euros in economic assistance, and in addition, many individual members have provided the country with impressive military assistance. A move that seemed unthinkable prior to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, a large joint European fund was created to make large-scale military purchases to be sent there. In addition, we have seen the EU. after years of strategic initiatives. The Union currently has a major geostrategic plan in the works that includes the integration of Ukraine, Moldova and possibly Georgia, as well as the Western Balkans, as well as a second plan in the interconnected areas of energy security and the green transition. The EU also enjoys significant support. The latest Eurobarometer survey shows that, on average across the 27 member states, the majority of European citizens tend to trust EU institutions. more than their own national governments. 45% are generally positive about the EU compared to 18% negative. 62% are optimistic about the future of the EU, against 35% are pessimistic.

The EU will face many challenges, she is strong, but she needs to become much stronger in the future.

But let’s get to the bad news. The policies of many Member States tell a very different story than the dominant institutions tell us, and the external challenges facing the Union are greater than ever. If we dig a little deeper into these surveys, we find a persistent question that has always bothered me. The Eurobarometer asks the question every year: “Do you think your country would look to the future better if it were outside the EU?”. Prior to the UK exit in 2016, an average of 34% of people across Europe answered yes to this question. There are more than 27 members in Europe this year, the average of those who want their country to leave the EU. is 27%. 42% in Slovenia, 41% in Croatia, 40% in Austria. Even in Belgium, which generously ceded its capital to the European Union, opponents of this reach 33%. This does not necessarily mean that any Member State will follow the UK’s example anytime soon. What happened in Britain from the moment they left and after is likely to discourage them. But this means that many Europeans are not happy with the EU, and their nationalist leaders want to change the Union from within, not leave it. Surprisingly, fewer Hungarians (27%) than French (28%) want to leave. Hungary, a full member of the European Union, is no longer a democracy. The current leaders of Poland, if they win the decisive autumn elections, will continue Orbanism a la Polonaise.

In Austria, the far-right and fiercely anti-immigration party leads the polls. Italy has a “post-neo-fascist” government, and let it behave responsibly in international affairs. Massive protests in France do not bode well for Emmanuel Macron’s neo-liberal center, with many analysts already suggesting that Marine Le Pen will be the likely winner of the 2027 election. And all this, not to mention the risks outside the Union. Putin’s new friendly approach to Xi Jinping. It cannot be ruled out that America will be Trump again next year, with or without Trump. Global warming is approaching over 1.5 degrees, the effects of which are already visible in the weather. The world population that has just passed 8 billion. The class gap is wider than ever, with huge differences between rich and poor countries. Oh yes, and the possibility of armed conflict between America and China. Continue;

The union is strong. But in the future, he needs to become much stronger if he wants to face these external and internal challenges.

Mr. Timothy Garton Ash is Professor of European Studies at the University of Oxford.