The right and liberals have been heavily divided since Bulgaria’s new parliamentary elections on Sunday, a vote marked by the rise of a nationalist pro-Russian faction in the shadow of the war in Ukraine, as well as a shocking level of abstention.

This is the worst-case scenario, at least as seen by Evelina Slavkova, an analyst at the Trend research center: “The more ambiguous the result, the more difficult it will be to form a stable government,” she explained to the Nova TV channel. network on Sunday evening, after Bulgaria’s fifth electoral process in just five years.

Former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s right-wing GERB party is credited with a slight lead (24-26%) over the liberal ballot led by former centrist leader Kirill Petkov (23-24%), according to forecasts by four public opinion institutions based on incomplete preliminary elections. Results.

Official results will not be announced until later in the week.

The hopes fueled by a wave of massive anti-corruption protests in the summer of 2020 seem like a distant memory in a country of 6.5 million, the poorest member state of the EU and NATO, mired in a costly political crisis unprecedented since the fall of socialism in 1990. .

After the fall of Boyko Borisov after a decade in power, the various factions that succeeded him failed to form a solid ruling coalition.

The disorganization of the political scene accelerated as the war in Ukraine erupted in a society historically and culturally close to Moscow, divided over military aid to Kyiv.

The new nationalist pro-Russian faction Vazrazdane (Renaissance) took advantage of the geopolitical environment to continue its ascent, winning 13-14% of the vote, compared to 10% in the October elections.

He rejects any supply of weapons to Kyiv and openly aligns himself with the Kremlin, as did the Socialists (SKB, 9-10% of the vote), the historical heirs of the Communist Party that once ruled the Balkan country.

Yesterday, the number of abstentions remained at an unimaginably high level, although it was slightly lower than in the previous vote: turnout was estimated to barely reach 40%.

And those who went to vote did not hide the fact that their patience was at the limit. “I want a stable government, you understand?” said Bozhan Sapunov, a 79-year-old pensioner exhausted by the change of provisional governments, while Krasimir Naydenov, 57, a private employee, said he no longer had “no confidence.” in no one.”

According to Andrey Raichev of the Gallup International Institute, “the war in Ukraine, the rapid growth of inflation, pressure from Western partners” should theoretically push the main political forces that claim to be close to the West to an agreement.

Can’t agree?

Lucas Macek, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute for Central and Eastern Europe, “doubts” the possibility of Boyko Borisov’s “departure” from the Bulgarian political scene, while at the same time he describes as “disturbing” what he describes as an “electoral spiral”. .

Bulgaria is “in the same situation as other Central European countries: the former leader is trying to hold on to power while other parties refuse to ally with him without any other broad audience,” he says.

The person concerned, a right-wing former Prime Minister of Bulgaria, warns against new elections. “that would be suicidemost people want to end instability,” said Borisov, 63, who went to vote in jeans.

The politician, who once projected the image of a man of the people, but tarnished by suspicions of corruption, failed to form a government in the fall due to the lack of allies, despite winning the elections.

His rival and nemesis Kirill Petkov, 42, says his goal is for Bulgaria to live “the life of a normal European country” and for its citizens to no longer be forced to migrate abroad.

Unless, as seems likely, this vote does not produce a clear winner, and barring some other unforeseen circumstances, the Bulgarians will have to endure yet another interim government appointed by President Rumen Radev, who personally says he opposes sending weapons to Ukraine.

Although Bulgarian military factories have been producing at a rapid pace since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and are indirectly exporting – through third parties – a large amount of military equipment to Ukraine.

Source: RES-IPE