His re-election Tayyip Erdogan V Turkish presidencybut the political survival of his personal party is threatened by a combination of catastrophic earthquake February 6 and the ongoing economic crisis, which weakens the national currency and reduces the purchasing power of the Turks.

Polls show opposition candidate after quake Kemal Kilicdaroglu get ahead of 3% to 6% of the Turkish president in the vote of intent. “The earthquake was a game changer as it rallied opposition supporters and exposed government incompetence.” says a Turkish analyst who spoke to Le Monde newspaper..

Columnist Mehmet Altan, for its part, assesses: “The earthquake exposed the nakedness of the regime and the obsession of one man – Erdogan – to maintain his power and his reputation. Erdogan’s balancing policy has ceased to be effective both in Turkey and in the international arena.”

Recent Issues

In recent weeks, its leader Turkish state ran into a bunch of problems. Following US Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to Ankara on February 20, the Turkish government tacitly suspended all shipments or transit of sanctioned Russian goods and goods through the country. This decision was made without the slightest announcement from the authorities.

Despite repeated warnings from Washington and Brussels, Turkey continued to trade in Russian goods, with trade between the two states increasing by 200% from the invasion of Ukraine until February.

Despite Ankara’s official condemnation of the Russian invasion and the Turkish government’s stern calls for Russia to withdraw from Crimea, Turkey has not imposed any economic sanctions on Moscow, and Erdogan has adopted a kind of “pro-Russian neutrality.”

Blinken’s visit

After the earthquake, public opinion polls show that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is ahead of the Turkish president by 3-6%.

However, everything changed after Blinken’s visit. On March 14, the pro-government newspaper Milliyet published an article by Elektronik Sanayi defense industry chief Haluk Györgun, who stressed that Turkey did not need Russia’s S-400 anti-missile systems, saying in the paper that his industrial group was planning to build an “air defense system.”

This initiative by Georgejun is expected to settle the diplomatic conflict between Washington and Ankara over the disputed acquisition of S-400s from Turkey.

Putin does not believe him

At the same time, Russian President Putin no longer seems to believe in Erdogan’s victory in the May elections. Significant was his refusal to instruct Syrian President Assad that Bashar al-Assad show reconciliation with the presence of Turkish troops in northern Syria.

“Putin is no longer betting on Erdogan and believes that he does not need to put pressure on Assad to please Ankara’s interests. Erdogan’s recent pivot to the West, such as his vote in favor of Finland’s NATO candidate, has further alienated him from the Russian president,” says Gazete Duvar’s Fehim Tashtekin.

While Moscow agreed on March 18 to an extension of an agreement to export Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea, this time Vladimir Putin offered an extension of just 60 days instead of the four months that Ankara had requested as an intermediary. Two days later, a Kremlin spokesman announced the suspension of the construction of natural gas loading facilities in Turkey. “The plan is complex. The earthquake has changed priorities,” said Dmitry Peskov.

The Turkish President is currently in a double stalemate. Staying close to Russia, she lost the confidence of Western states. Russia, for its part, is hardening its attitude towards Ankara, seeing Turkey’s rapprochement with the West. “Trying to hold more and more chestnuts in his hands, he ended up burning his hands,” Altan says of Erdogan.

Armed attack

Recall that an armed attack took place on the office of the Good Party in Istanbul with many bullets and no casualties. The perpetrator was later arrested, according to Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu. Erdogan’s threats to Aksener preceded: “Ms. Meral, when we say we will do something, we do it. Don’t make me mess with you! Follow my name. My name is Tayyip and my last name is Erdogan. Beware of Tayyip and Erdogan!”

Aksener made it clear that Erdogan was responsible for the attack. “A month and a half before the elections and after the threats of the president of the republic – I wouldn’t call him that because presidents don’t talk like that – a pre-planned armed attack was made on us. I say this because I also served as Minister of the Interior. A man has not yet been born to intimidate Meral Axener. May God punish me if I am afraid of someone other than God. I’m not afraid, Mr. Recep. Mr. Rejep, I am addressing you. There is nothing left in your administration of the country that I have not experienced, but these days will pass. On May 15, the sun will rise and the monstrous system, attacks, injustice will disappear. slander. It’s been a month and a half before you leave. Now you know how to leave. You prefer to yell at us instead of yelling at the slimes next to you. But you can’t run away.”