Hours before he was arrested by the Russian authorities as a “spy”, Mr. Ivan Gerskovich published an article in the Wall Street Journal about the problems that the Russian economy “actually” began to face 13 months later war in Ukraine.

“The Russian economy is starting to collapse. Investments are declining, labor is scarce, the budget is shrinking,” Gerskovich said in a controversial article, his last on Wall Street Journalquoting, among other things, the phrase of the Russian “oligarch” Oleg Deripaska according to which “there will be no money in Russia next year“.

As the war drags on into its second year and Western sanctions intensify, Russian government revenues are shrinking and the Russian economy is moving, perhaps in the long term, on a lower growth trajectory. […] The country’s biggest exports, natural gas and oil, have already lost important customers. Public finances are overwhelmed. The ruble has fallen more than 20% against the dollar since last November. The workforce has dwindled as young people are sent to the front or leave the country for fear of being drafted into the military. Uncertainty limits business investment,” wrote a Wall Street Journal reporter who also previously worked for AFP, the Moscow Times (now especially critical of Putin’s circle) and the New York Times, in one of their articles they also appeared in the Economist. Foreign Policy and Politico, among others.

How likely is it that the article in question, which Ivan Gershkovich is shown to have co-signed with another Wall Street Journal journalist now based in Berlin, Georgy Kantsev, was the last straw (of Russian authorities’ tolerance)? which led to the arrest of an American journalist on charges of espionage.

Between the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the time of his arrest, Gershkovich published about 110 articles in the Wall Street Journal, most of which can be considered critical of the Kremlin. It is noted, however, that we are not talking about author’s articles, but about reports based on sources, in most cases named.

It should also be noted that the 31-year-old Wall Street Journal correspondent was accredited by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

In his latest article that the clouds that have begun to gather over the Russian economy and its prospects, the 31-year-old Gershkovich cites as sources: a former employee of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, now living abroad, Alexandra Prokopenko, some analysts (Vasily Astrov, Maria Sagina ) and a number of Russian small entrepreneurs, some of whom remain in the country and “fight” with it (Artem Temirov, Ilya Korovenkov, Oleg Mansurov).

Could Gershkovich, fluent in Russian as a child of immigrants from the Soviet Union, become the target of persecution by the Russian authorities because of his sources?

According to Al Jazeera’s Dorsha Jabari, Gerskovich has lived in Russia for the past six years. The Washington Post notes in its article that he has been a journalist in Russia since 2017, and last year he joined the staff of the Wall Street Journal, with his first signed article published in early February, weeks before the Russian invasion .

According to what was released by the Russian FSB, the 31-year-old Wall Street Journal correspondent was arrested in Yekaterinburg (Ekaterinburg) in central Russia while “collecting, at the direction of the American side, classified information about the activities of the Russian military industry that constitutes state secrets.”

For her part, Maria Zakharova, representing the Russian Foreign Ministry, said that the 31-year-old “caught myself“, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov would say the same. The promptness with which the Russian leadership publicly welcomed the arrest of an American indicates that the corresponding order to prosecute him came from the top leadership of the Russian hierarchy, FT comments, citing analysts .

Al-Jazeera’s Dorsha Jabari reports from Moscow that Gershkovich did travel to the Yekaterinburg region to report on the activities of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary group.

Citing Russian reports (in this case, Vecherniye Vedomosti), the Washington Post claims that plainclothes men arrested a man at a restaurant in Yekaterinburg. According to the same reports, they put a shirt over his head so that he could not see anything and led him into a van, in which they left the scene.

The Wall Street Journal, for its part, was quick to release a statement to “categorically deny” all charges and demand the journalist’s immediate release.

However, as things stand, the 32-year-old US citizen will remain in detention until at least May 29… with the future, however, written off as more sinister for him. If convicted of espionage, he could face up to 20 years in prison. For comparison, the American Paul Whelan, also accused of espionage, was sentenced in 2020 by a Moscow court to 16 years in prison as a “spy”.

Previous 1986

Recall that the last American media reporter arrested in Russia on charges of espionage was Nikolai Danilov in September 1986, during the Cold War, in Moscow. Danilov was finally released after about two weeks, but everything now shows that Gerskovich will not be lucky … to be released immediately.

American basketball player Britney Grainer Last year, he spent nearly ten months in Russian prisons on charges (of possessing a small amount of hemp oil for a vaping device) that pale in comparison to the espionage charges Gershkovich now faces. Grainer finally returned to the US last December after Moscow secured the release of a Russian arms dealer in return. Victor Bout who was detained in the US back in 2008. However, US ex-Marine Paul Whelan, who was arrested in Moscow in 2018 as a “spy”, is still in custody almost five years later with a prison sentence of just 16 years.

Many are now wondering if the Wall Street Journal’s Gerskovich could have been Russia’s bargaining chip in the context of the new exchange of prisoners with the USA. However, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov hastened to reject such a possibility as premature, which, however, cannot be ruled out in the medium and long term.

Thorns in a relationship

The arrest of a Wall Street Journal correspondent now adds another big thorn in the test of US-Russian relations, raising suspicions to Cold War levels and widening existing divisions.

His press secretary White House, Karine Jean-Pierrecondemned the persecution of American citizens by the Russian government as unacceptable, condemned the detention of Gershkovich, and expressed deep US concern about what is happening in Russia.

Going even further, a spokesman for the White House Security Council, John Kirbyurged those Americans currently in Russia to leave immediately and those planning to go there to cancel their plans.

And all this against the background of what Gershkovich describes in his latest article for the Wall Street Journal on the development of the Russian economy:

“In January and February 2023, oil and gas tax revenues fell 46% year-on-year, while government spending rose more than 50%. […] Retail sales fell 6.7% in 2022. […] Sales of new cars in February fell by 62% compared to the same period last year. […] The budget deficit reached $34 billion in the first two months of 2023. […] Falling exports, tight labor market conditions and increased government spending exacerbate inflationary risks […] About half of the enterprises are experiencing a shortage of staff […] The lack of new aircraft and spare parts can lead to maintenance problems (including for Russian aviation). IT companies are struggling as they no longer have access to Western technology […] With all these changes, the Russian economy is now more dependent on the state.”

“It’s like going back to Soviet timesVasily Astroph, an economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Research, told Ivan Gershkovich of the Wall Street Journal ahead of the latter’s arrest.

However, as it may seem in retrospect, this return to the Soviet era of the Cold War is connected not only with developments on the Russian economic front…