How Belarus justifies plans to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons in the country
“A forced measure”, “an argument for maintaining sovereignty”, “a chance to return to the club of nuclear powers” – this is how the Belarusian state media and government officials are trying to substantiate and portray plans for the deployment of Russian tactics nuclear weapons (TNW) in Belarus, about which, with reference to the requests of Alexander Lukashenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
At the same time, it is also alleged that Minsk and Moscow made this decision “in the context of Alexander Lukashenko’s statements about supplies to Ukraine (Great Britain. – Red.) weapons with depleted uranium”. DW – about the main theses that sound in the propaganda publications and television programs of the state media of Belarus and whether they can convince Belarusians.
“Lukashenko spoke about this in November 2021”
On Sunday, March 25, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia wants to place its tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. In turn, Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko made no statement on the matter after that. However, the Pool of the First Telegram channel, associated with the Lukashenko government, recalled that Lukashenko spoke about the deployment of nuclear weapons in the Republic of Belarus in November 2021 and “repeated it in July 2022.”
The chairman of the board of the Belarusian society “Knowledge” Vadim Gigin also drew attention to this, speaking on the air of the Russian TV channel “Soloviev Live”. In addition, Gigin emphasized that this decision “has the serious support of society”, since, after the results of the referendum of February 27, 2022, the wording that Belarus is a nuclear weapons-free zone was removed from the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus.
“Everything was absolutely open. This (referendum. – Red.) is the most massive information and analysis campaign in the history of Belarus. People supported the fact that we removed that wording, meaning that we are a nuclear weapons-free zone,” – Gigin explained.
Remember the bombing of Yugoslavia
Pro-government Belarusian experts call the British statement that it will supply projectiles with depleted uranium to Ukraine as a trigger for making a decision on the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in the Republic of Belarus. The chairman of the newly created Belaya Rus party, Senator Oleg Romanov, believes that “the use of even depleted uranium in military operations in Ukraine is, in essence, the use of nuclear weapons.”
Secretary General of the Belarusian Red Cross Dmitry Shevtsov called the use of such shells “not even Chernobyl” (but something worse. – Red.). “We can look at the former Yugoslavia, at other countries where only the same bombings with depleted uranium shells were used, where the incidence of cancer increased several times – from 5 to 6 times,” said Shevtsov (studies in different countries could not unequivocally confirm that it was depleted uranium shells that caused the growth of oncological diseases. Red.).
“Yes, these are not weapons of mass destruction, but nevertheless, the consequences will be extremely negative,” says military expert Andrei Chernobay.
“necessary measure”
According to him, the decision to deploy Russian nuclear weapons in the Republic of Belarus is “a forced measure aimed at ensuring the security of the Union State and the Republic of Belarus”. Chernobay regards this as “the only weighty argument for preserving sovereignty and territorial integrity”, pointing out that “Nuclear weapons in Belarus are designed to cool the hot heads of our western partners”.
Political analyst Nikolai Volovich also calls Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus a “forced measure”. This, in his words, “will bring the political mafia of the West to its senses” and will become “a serious impediment” “for the Polish junta in Kiev.”
Deputy of the lower house of parliament, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus, Oleg Gaidukevich, is sure that Lukashenka “does everything so that there is always peace in Belarus”, and Western countries do not attack Belarus and Russia, “because they know they will never win.”
Delights and threats from pro-government figures
In this regard, political scientist Alexander Shpakovsky notes that since Western states imposed sanctions on official Minsk in 1997, “legally, the Budapest Memorandum is meaningless to us.” Shpakovsky would like “Minsk to get the right to use nuclear weapons to defend the country, if necessary, and for the Belarusian military to master the relevant skills.”
Political scientist Vadim Elfimov does not hide his enthusiasm about the imminent deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in the Republic of Belarus. He calls this step a “historic chance” for “Belarus to return to the club of nuclear powers”.
“Belarus is a nuclear power! A state that has the ability to respond with tactical nuclear weapons in the event of an attack on its territory! Warsaw will melt and Vilnius will sink!” Grigory Azarenok, a journalist for the state television channel STV, exclaimed the other day in his program “Secret Sources of Politics 2.0”. And he used in his emotional speech such expressions as “matte sunset” and “rise of the plague mushroom in the Polish swamp.”
What is the weakness of the arguments of the Belarusian authorities?
Political analyst of the project “Pozirk” Alexander Klaskovsky claims that official Belarusian propaganda in this case is actively exaggerating various theses. The first is that “the probable deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a response to the aggressive steps of the West”, in particular, to the fact that the British decided to transfer projectiles with depleted uranium to Ukraine.
“This argument is far-fetched, because, firstly, depleted uranium shells are not nuclear weapons. Secondly, Russia itself has a lot of them, which Putin admitted,” says the expert. And he adds that the plan to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus did not emerge yesterday: “The British recently announced their intention to do so. And Putin and Lukashenko have long cherished these plans. Moreover, Lukashenko, as a person speaker, talked about it more than once.”
It is also no coincidence, according to Klaskovsky, that the article on the country’s non-nuclear status was removed from the Belarusian constitution. “Furthermore, Lukashenka once said that if NATO deploys nuclear weapons in Poland, we will respond by deploying a Russian one on our territory,” continues the analyst. “There is still no talk of nuclear weapons in Poland, but Russia and Belarus have already announced this step.”
Belarus becomes target of attack?
Alexander Klaskovsky believes that, despite the fact that Lukashenka has “his own nuclear ambitions”, he is now “on the wings” of Putin. “It was Putin’s old plan to blackmail Ukraine and Europe in his style. This is part of the Kremlin’s hybrid war, not a response to some kind of NATO aggressiveness,” the DW interlocutor is convinced.
He also drew attention to the inconsistency of arguments that after the appearance of Russian nuclear weapons in the Republic of Belarus, the country’s security would supposedly increase and “no one would dare to attack us.” “This is also cheap demagoguery. You don’t need to be a military expert to understand that Belarus is becoming a target, a target for a retaliatory strike or even a preemptive strike if a nuclear mess breaks out,” warns the analyst.
Belarusians against nuclear weapons on their territory
According to him, one should not forget that Belarusians are traumatized by the consequences of Chernobyl, and also that this is a nation “whose historical memory has an aphorism” if there were no war. “And this is a strong antidote to this kind of propaganda”, – the analyst has no doubts.
This is also evidenced by the data of sociologists. Klaskovsky recalled the results of a survey conducted in August 2022 by Chatham House: 82% of its participants said they had a negative or rather negative attitude towards the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus. “Here it is obvious that Lukashenka and his propaganda are at odds with the opinion of Belarusians, I think it is impossible to convince such a mass with such cheap arguments,” summarized Alexander Klaskovsky.
Source: DW
Anna White is a journalist at 247 News Reel, where she writes on world news and current events. She is known for her insightful analysis and compelling storytelling. Anna’s articles have been widely read and shared, earning her a reputation as a talented and respected journalist. She delivers in-depth and accurate understanding of the world’s most pressing issues.