Pentagon politicians have always divided the world into East and West. But looking at the embrace between Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin this week, writes David Ignatius in The Washington Post, one might wonder if we might need a unified “Eurasian command” to counter an all-encompassing threat.

A strong China strengthens a weak Russia. Here is a real headline describing the spectacular meetings in Moscow this week of the leaders of the two countries. The Chinese are not supplying arms (yet), but Xi has certainly provided moral and psychological support in what could be called a visit to wish a sick relative a speedy recovery. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby rightly called Putin a “junior partner” on Tuesday, according to David Ignatius of the Washington Post.

The paradox of the war in Ukraine is that Putin’s desire for more power in Europe has made him weaker. This shrinking Russia will increasingly fall under Chinese rule, unless there is an unlikely post-Ukrainian reversal and Putin is replaced by a Western-oriented leader. Perhaps this is the main reason for Xi’s fraternal visit: he is strengthening the pole against America and the West.

According to David Ignatius, China’s hegemony over a weaker Russia will take many forms in the coming years. Russia has lost its energy markets in Europe due to its reckless encroachment, so it will become increasingly dependent on demand from China and other Asian consumers. China’s economic influence is growing every year in Central Asia and the Russian Far East itself. Its vast power in space, cyberspace, robotics and artificial intelligence will increasingly overshadow Russia’s.

Xi’s strategy to help Russia appears to be centered on a peace plan that will stop the bleeding in Ukraine. As far as we know, the same article says, Xi is proposing a ceasefire agreement that would “freeze” Russia’s gains from last year’s illegal invasion. This version will not “pass” through Ukraine or the United States. We won’t know – within a few days – if Xi will speak to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a way that starts a real negotiation process. This seems unlikely. But the same thing happened with the Iran-Saudi deal that Xi struck this month.

Playing the role of peacemaker, Xi may be better placed to take other, tougher rescue measures if Ukraine abandons the ceasefire. He could offer Russia ammunition, claiming he was simply leveling the playing field. He could try to mobilize countries like India, South Africa and Brazil to force Ukraine to stop fighting.

Xi wants to maintain supremacy by citing the inviolability of the UN charter, although he reaffirms his support for the Russian leader who has repealed the rules of the charter. It’s a particularly cynical approach, but diplomatically astute, as David Ignatius describes in the Washington Post.

Xi’s growing role as leader of the Eurasian bloc poses dilemmas for US policymakers. For nearly 30 years, separating China from Russia has been a central goal of US foreign policy. The emergence of this “wedge” was the main reason for the historic visit of President Richard Nixon and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger to China in 1972.

Initially, the Biden administration hoped it could test this strategy in reverse – warming relations with Moscow at the June 2021 Geneva summit, in part to focus on challenging China. It didn’t turn out the way the White House had hoped, to put it mildly, according to the same article.

Now it’s Xi… a triangulator. He is playing on the bitter divide between the United States and Russia, helping Putin while maintaining some distance. Xi has similarly used China’s close ties with Iran to drive a diplomatic wedge between Riyadh and Tehran, something the United States has failed to achieve.

While Putin reflexively basked in Xi’s glow this week, the visit came as a reminder of just how isolated the Russian leader is. Every two weeks, President Biden hosts a prominent foreign leader at the White House. When was the last time you saw a major foreign leader visit the Kremlin? (The President of Belarus does not count). Xi’s “pass-through” visit will provide psychological support to “dear friend” Putin and help his popularity at home. But apart from China and some extreme cases, Russia stands apart.

If you’re looking for another reason, says David Ignatius of The Washington Post, why it’s important for Ukraine to succeed against Russia, consider photos from Moscow. “President of Eurasia” is, I’m afraid, the invisible caption to Xi’s photographs we see between the golden doors and red carpets of the Kremlin. The idea that a huge part of the world is dominated by China, so resolutely opposed to freedom and democracy, is frightening. If this union succeeds, we will live in a darker world.

Bottom line: Last week, the International Criminal Court charged Putin with war crimes. Xi is his only powerful friend. Their separate treatment is bad enough. If they really become partners in Eurasia, sharing sovereignty under the Chinese flag, it will be even worse.

Source: Washington Post.