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The Belarusian regime is intensifying its international activities and fighting for the “sealing of the political system”, while in society there is an anti-war consensus and a “call for calm”. These are the conclusions of the authors of the fourth edition of the analytical report “Belarusian Tracker of Changes” spanning events from December 2022 to February 2023. The study’s online presentation took place on Tuesday, March 21.
Belarusians began to trust the authorities more?
Traditionally, the tracker is supplemented with sociological research. This time it was carried out on the basis of an online panel (a service that recruits Internet users from Belarus to participate in surveys. – Red.). This, according to the researchers, means that the distribution of responses in the sample can “significantly differ from the distribution of responses among Belarusian citizens”. The authors also do not exclude that the so-called fear factor may have influenced the research results to some extent.
Thus, when using the new methodology, it was found that 66% of Belarusians tend to trust the authorities, in November 2022 they registered 61%. However, the authors claim that it is not worth comparing these indicators – the figures only show an “increasing trend of trust in the authorities”, and do not indicate that 66% of Belarusians are their supporters.
The upward trend in confidence is likely due to “the strengthening of the sense of stability in the context of the military catastrophe that is unfolding in Ukraine and Russia”. It could also signify the emergence of a tendency “to be optimistic about the current state of the country in terms of the economic situation as well as the political situation”. This may be influenced, for example, by the fact that inflation has stopped in Belarus and real wages are rising. “Economic factors remain important for Belarusian society, even more important than the war,” notes independent sociologist Philip Bikanov.
Anti-war consensus in Belarusian society
The researchers also found that society is very divided on whether to support Russia or Ukraine in the war. The position of people, as a rule, is correlated with trust in authorities. At the same time, according to Bikanov, even those who tend to trust the Lukashenko regime believe that “Russia made a mistake by attacking Ukraine.”
“The ruling line (in Belarusian society. – Red.) – anti-war consensus: the army of Belarus should not participate in the war on either side,” adds an independent sociologist. At the same time, respondents are poorly informed about the political strategy in Ukraine, as well as about the crackdowns against Belarusians for supporting Ukraine.
The agenda of the democratic forces also remains “on the periphery of the information field”. Only 7% of respondents heard about the creation of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s United Transitional Cabinet. “At the same time, it cannot be said that Belarusian society has lost interest in change. The January-February study of Chatham House records a demand for renovation (59% of the urban population), dissatisfaction with pensions, employees, taxes, services public, etc.”, says the statement.
GDP decline has not happened since 1995
The researchers note that the downturn in the economy has continued in Belarus. In 2022, real GDP decreased by 4.7%. And this is the biggest drop since 1995. If last year construction, trade and transport activity was the one that “sinked” the most, this year it was the information technology sector.
At the same time, in January 2023 in Belarus, there was an increase in real wages compared to last year’s figures by 1.6%. “Wage trends have started to diverge from general economic trends,” said Lev Lvovsky, a senior researcher at BEROC. According to the expert, “the budget deficit is not going anywhere”: “The royal default did not help to close the hole in the budget, as well as the postponement of payments to Russia, which is why the government continues with its expansive monetary policy, and also increases the charges of citizens (taxes. – Red.)”.
Economic concessions to Russia and increasing Western isolation
BEROC Academic Director Katerina Bornukova also draws attention to Russia’s concessions: Belarus achieved, among other things, the restructuring of loans and favorable gas prices.
As for the interaction with the countries of the extreme arc, Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to China, according to her, can help restore economic relations between Beijing and Minsk, although so far there are no details.
The economist also says that despite the fact that a new EU sanctions package has not been extended to the Republic of Belarus, the country’s economic isolation from the West is increasing. Poland closed one of the border crossings with Belarus and significantly tightened the rules for transporting goods. Lithuania, closed railway crossing. “This is wiping away the remnants of Belarus’s reputation as a transit transport hub. In good years, Belarus received up to two billion dollars in net revenues from the export of transport services, in the past it fell to $1.3 billion “, notes Bornukova. .
“Fragile balance” in relations with Ukraine
Against the backdrop of Western isolation, Alexander Lukashenko visits Zimbabwe, the United Arab Emirates and China. Vladimir Putin visited Belarus for the first time in three years. Significant for the Belarusian regime and propaganda was the visit to Minsk by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, said Pavel Slyunkin, associate analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
As for the non-inclusion of Belarus in the EU sanctions package, according to the expert, this may indicate the unwillingness of most European countries to increase pressure on Minsk “without a significant expansion of its involvement in hostilities (in Ukraine. – Red.)”.
At the same time, there is a “fragile balance in relations between the Ukrainian authorities and the Belarusian regime”, and official Kiev continues to ignore Belarusian democratic forces.
Meanwhile, the founder of the Sense Analytics agency, Artem Shraibman, draws attention to the drawing of the Kiev center of the Belarusian opposition around the Kastus Kalinovsky regiment, which is more radical than the democratic forces gathered around the cabinet of Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya .
Analyst: “There is still no talk of a partocracy regime”
Within Belarus, according to Shraibman, the “sealing of the political system” continues, this trend is consistent with the introduction of amendments to the law on political parties. “In the new Belarusian political configuration, the existence of opposition parties is prohibited at the legislative level. To fill the niche, the ruling party is registered on the basis of Belaya Rus (a pro-government public organization. Red.)”, says Shraibman. However, in his opinion, “there is still no talk of a partocracy regime”.
The analyst also draws attention to the “experiences” of the authorities on the “almost mitigation of repression”. So, Belarusians are offered to “pay off” the persecution by donations to solidarity funds and transfer a similar or greater amount in favor of the state. “There has been a commercialization of repression on a massive scale,” Shraibman said.
A commission for the return of political emigrants was also created – a “quasi-mechanism for the forgiveness of sins”. “It is absurd to talk about some kind of easing, while the number and cruelty of arrests and real persecution of Belarusians is growing,” notes the expert.
Gennady Korshunov, senior analyst at the Center for New Ideas, also draws attention to the systematic and massive repressions. So, collective arrests, arrests of families, “purges of disloyal companies by issuing a wolf fine” continue, trials in absentia of the departed Belarusians were started.
Source: DW
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