Wagner’s group is about to find itself in a difficult situation as, although it has suffered a huge loss of personnel, it will also be without a large portion of the prisoners recruited in the fall as they complete their six-month parole terms. and fired the British Ministry of Defense notes.

The group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is trying to regain his strength but appears to be being sabotaged by Russia’s defense ministry, says the Institute for the Study of War, which notes that Moscow appears unsure how it should recast Wagner’s role.

Wagner’s big problem: inmates recruited in the fall are finishing their internships

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s company of mercenaries has suffered significant losses, is about to run out of prisoners who are completing six months of service, and can no longer recruit others from prisons, British military experts note:

• In the coming weeks, thousands of Russian prisoners who fought on the side of Wagner’s group are likely to be pardoned and released. The peak recruitment of those convicted of criminal liability fell on the fall of 2022, when prisoners were offered a replacement after six months of military service.
• Although about half of the recruited captives are believed to have been killed or wounded, reports from Russia suggest the group is making good on its promise to free survivors. It is reported that the certificates issued to the discharged Wagner veterans were approved by a decree of President Putin.
• Since Wagner is now likely prohibited from recruiting new inmates, the departure will exacerbate his staffing problems.
• In addition, the sudden influx of often violent criminals with recent and often traumatic experiences of war is likely to pose a serious challenge to Russian society.

How Prigozhin tries to regain his strength and how Shoigu sabotages him

Russian authorities are likely at a loss as to how to reimagine Wagner’s new role after Yevgeny Prigozhin made the most of the mercenary group’s resources and support, the Institute for the Study of War also said.

The destruction of the mercenary forces in the Bakhmut area is likely to cause Prigozhin and Russian officials to reconsider Wagner’s role as Prigozhin tries to rebuild his forces.

Sergei Mironov, the leader of Russia’s Right Russia for Truth political party, has publicly advocated legalizing private military companies such as the Wagner group and suggested the Russian Defense Ministry take over oversight, which is likely to be a major one, several media sources said Monday. restriction of Prigozhin’s current freedoms as Wagner’s financier.

On Sunday, a military blogger associated with Wagner accused the Russian Defense Ministry of sabotaging the company’s efforts to replenish its forces in Ukraine with Wagner fighters from other countries by canceling military transport flights.

If true, this report suggests that Sergei Shoigu’s ministry is trying to prevent Wagner from regaining political influence and rebuilding his military potential in Ukraine, while maintaining the Group’s role abroad.

Prigogine seems to take every opportunity to increase his media relevance and keep the Wagner group in the foreground. In recent days, he has made a series of statements, arguing with local officials, intensifying the controversy over the funerals of Wagner fighters, commenting on the expansion of Russian censorship laws, marking the alleged anniversary of Wagner’s involvement in Ukraine, and more.