Emmanuel Macron took the result of the vote of no confidence with relief, because in France there is no longer room for carefree celebrations.

If the pension reform was the quintessential “political survival test” for the government of Elisabeth Born and Macron himself, then the French president and his elected prime minister managed to pass (and) come out of it politically alive.

A total of 278 deputies out of 577 voted for a motion of no confidence, the first of two submitted, which had the best chance of being voted in favour, as it was multi-party. as opposed to the second, which came only from the far-right National Anxiety (RN) organization Marine Le Pen. However, at least 287 votes were required to pass a no-confidence vote, which means the government is surviving for the time being, and also opens the way for the proposed changes to the pension system to be passed, raising the retirement age from 62 to 64.

Now, the Macron side can temporarily calm down, but there is no place to rest now. On the contrary, less than a year from his re-election as president (it was April 2022 when he was re-elected), the 45-year-old Macron is already showing considerable wear and tear (his popularity has fallen to 28% according to a recent IFOP-JDD poll), and this is actually within the framework of anything but favorable conditions for him and his party.

Close to Macron and the government, the parliamentary group no longer has a majority in the National Assembly (with 250 out of 577 seats). The fact that she manages to pass bills and remain politically active thanks to votes of no confidence, she owes 61 deputies to the centre-right group of Republicans, which has not officially joined the ruling bloc, but sends lifelines to Elizabeth Bourne. side.

However, the next elections in the country are expected in 2027 and by that time the damage to the government and the president may reach even greater proportions, while at the same time there are internal shocks in the Republican group, which may at some point, depending on the events, stop saving the government in difficult times.

“The French president survived an uprising in the national assembly, but now faces the prospect of protracted social unrest across the country,” Politico notes in its analysis, while Reuters sees a politically challenging future for Macron and the current government.

The centrist president’s failure to garner enough support in parliament to put pension reform to a vote has undermined his reform agenda and weakened his leadership, Reuters’ own analysis says, amid Macron’s move to activate Article 49.3 of the constitution, which allows him to pass the changes. retired bypassing the people’s assembly and without prior voting there.

According to Barclays analysts, according to Reuters, the government “will be significantly weakened, and social protests against the reform are likely to continue for several weeks, which could negatively affect the French economy.”

The unions say they will continue their demonstrations and strikes, although they are expected to wear out at some point, while the French opposition has so far been unable to hold a united front against the government despite tensions. and polarization.

Next stop: Constitutional Court.

Opposition parties (NUPES, RN) said they would take the pension reform to the Constitutional Court as “unconstitutional”. “In short, a new law on reforming the pension system has been adopted, but it cannot be implemented yet,” notes the French network France24.

Scenarios of personnel reshuffles and change of the prime minister

In other words, problems remain for Macron, who may soon, as Politico reports citing rumors and speculation, remove Elizabeth Bourne as prime minister as part of a government reshuffle.