A group of hackers with ties to the Russian government appear to be preparing new cyberattacks against Ukrainian infrastructure and government institutions, Microsoft said in a report on Wednesday, suggesting that Russia’s long-awaited spring offensive could include actions both in cyberspace and in the field.

The report also says Russia appears to be ramping up influence operations outside of Ukraine to dampen European and US support for ongoing military assistance, intelligence sharing and other assistance to the Ukrainian government. The effort comes from a group in the Republican Party — and some in the Democratic Party — who argue that supporting Ukraine is not a primary interest of the United States.

For now, Russia’s main influence campaign is focused on Europe, but it will shift to the United States “as we get closer to the upcoming presidential election debate this fall,” said Clint Watts, head of Microsoft’s Digital Threat Intelligence Center.

Even before the war began, Russia’s attempts to use its significant cyber capabilities against Ukraine, and its failure to paralyze the government in ways American officials expected, came under intense scrutiny and also revealed some of the mystery.

Data collected in recent months shows that Russia has often tried to coordinate cyberattacks with physical attacks on the Ukrainian power grid and other facilities. But Ukrainians have often been one step ahead of Moscow and have backup systems in place or installed new ones, including moving much of the country’s digital operations to the cloud.

Microsoft’s report carries significant weight because the company’s warnings of impending cyberattacks ahead of the war were largely accurate. It also suggests that Russian digital fighters, many of whom are linked to the country’s intelligence services, are trying to strike again in the second year of the war.

In recent months, senior U.S. officials have begun discussing efforts to strengthen Ukrainian cyber defenses in late 2021, and there has been talk of moving government services to the cloud weeks after the invasion began. This minimized the damage caused by Russia and allowed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to broadcast daily messages online to rally citizens in the fight.

Microsoft said it believes a Russia-linked group it monitors is taking actions that could be “preparing for a new attack,” including attacks on personal data, attempts to access systems, and “cleanups” of malware to destruction of data, as hackers did in the early days of last year’s hack.

“There is a surge in attempts to gain access to government facilities in order to gain access to critical infrastructure, and then try to use destructive or modified ransomware attacks. [σ.σ. κακόβουλο λογισμικό]Watts said.

Ukrainian officials say they see more than 10 cyberattacks a day, with Russian hackers targeting the energy sector, supply facilities, military installations and government databases.

“We monitor risks and threats in real time 24 hours a day,” said Ilya Vityuk, head of the cybersecurity department of the Security Service of Ukraine, known as the SBU. “We know by name most of the Russian intelligence hackers who work against us.”

But even as Russian cyber operations appear poised to step up, Ukrainian defenses, at least for now, remain strong, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials.

The United States and its allies have occasionally briefed Ukraine’s cyber defenses on how to counter groups seeking to disable its systems. US officials, however, provided few details, and also declined to talk about the information they are providing to Ukraine to help target its missiles and other combat systems.

Watts said the Microsoft study found that Ukrainians have also become more resistant to Russian propaganda, and that Ukrainian interest in Russian news sites has declined sharply as the war has continued.

Instead, Russia has focused its operations to influence Ukrainian refugees in Poland and elsewhere. Moscow has also targeted the NATO audience in an attempt to undermine support for the war.

“The tipping point for their influence operations right now is Western Europe,” Mr. Watts said. “They are trying to use various means to undermine support for Ukraine in Western Europe.”

For now, Germany remains the most decisive battleground for Russian influence operations, and Moscow hopes to make it harder for Berlin to send more military aid to Ukraine further.

Russian propagandists are pushing narratives that blame allied support for Ukraine for rising inflation and energy prices, according to Microsoft and the US officials.

While it is difficult to judge the effectiveness of influence campaigns, in some respects these efforts have been more successful than cyberattacks.

In the past year, Russia has made several attempts to cyber-attack the Ukrainian energy system. But the Ukrainians neutralized hundreds of attacks on energy facilities, and only 30 turned into critical incidents that caused disruptions, Vytiuk said.

Russia’s ongoing campaign of missile and drone strikes on electrical infrastructure has also proved much more effective than cyberattacks, plunging much of the country into cold and darkness for days.

Even when the cyberattacks on the power grid were successful, “Ukraine was able to bounce back very quickly,” Watts said.