They are afraid they will lose their jobs after the war is over, but they did not stop for a minute to give their best throughout Christmas and New Year. These are Russian military industry workers whom Vladimir Putin visited in mid-January to encourage and reassure them.

“Our defense industry annually produces about the same number of anti-aircraft missile systems for various purposes as all the military sectors of the world produce. Our production is comparable to the world,” said the President of Russia, visiting the St. Petersburg Obukhov plant of the state company Almaz-Antey, which produces air defense systems. Vladimir Putin, according to Anadolu, said that after Western companies left Russia due to war in Ukraine, they were successfully replaced by domestic companies.

Indeed, that seems to be the case – at least for missiles, given the flurry of missile strikes on Ukraine in recent days. Of course, the fact that Moscow is now using its hyperweapon — the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles — may indicate that, on the one hand, it is running out of “conventional” missiles, and, on the other hand, the ground forces and the equipment they carry. . are declining.

According to the Eurasia Daily Monitor of the Jamestown Foundation, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev announced two months ago the creation of a new group that would oversee priority arms production. The ex-president of Russia also publicly warned the heads of defense enterprises about criminal liability, which would entail further violations of contracts for the production of weapons.

At the same time, Vladimir Putin publicly criticized Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Madurov for delays in fulfilling contracts for military and civil aircraft. And Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that all cargo that is planned to be delivered to the Russian Armed Forces in 2022 must be delivered before the end of February 2023.

For his part, Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner mercenary paramilitary group, is urging the Kremlin to send him ammunition, otherwise, he says, he will no longer be able to fight on his behalf in Ukraine.

Does the Russian military industry really have problems?

Russian exports are falling

While it seems that, at least for now, the invasion of Ukraine does not face any particular problem, a recent poll by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released last week shows that it faces a big problem in arms exports. , which will reflexively create during the events a large gap in financing not only the war, but also the economy itself.

From what we can conclude, the reasons for the decline in arms exports are twofold: on the one hand, the sanctions of the United States and the West, and on the other hand, the general distrust of importers precisely because of the sanctions and the international isolation of Russia. Russia’s arms export industry – historically the world’s second most profitable after the United States – appears to be collapsing under the weight of technological change, international political isolation and a devastating war in Ukraine, according to new data released by the world’s leading arms industry watchdog, SIPRI.

In fact, SIPRI notes that arms exports have already fallen by 31% over the past five years. According to the same analysis, Russia’s share of global arms exports fell from 22% to 16% between 2018 and 2022, leaving it well behind the US, which accounts for 40% of military exports, and only slightly ahead of France. which is the source of 11% of arms exports over the past five years.

Back in August last year, the Foreign Ministry noted that while the full impact of the sanctions may not be obvious, the pressure is likely to have long-term implications for Russia’s ability to project power abroad, especially in the Middle East.

Moscow has long competed with the United States and Europe as a major supplier of advanced arms and spare parts to Arab governments. However, a war in Ukraine could reduce its ability to deliver these goods reliably for years to come, and possibly longer, depending on how long the conflict continues.

In this context, Simon Weseman, a senior fellow at SIPRI, told Newsweek of the institute’s recent analysis that “there are different issues that Russia has to contend with. One of them, of course, is pressure from the US and other countries – already ongoing since 2014 – on potential and existing Russian customers to stop and refrain from buying Russian weapons while offering them alternative technologies and alternative weapons. . They did it very strongly with India, but they do it with others. They did this with Indonesia, which led to the cancellation of the order for Russian fighters. They did [οι ΗΠΑ] with Egypt, where they don’t speak so openly, but Egypt had an order for fighter jets from Russia and it was canceled. Quite obviously, I would say that the US put pressure on them.”

Even if Moscow finds the money it needs to support its military industry, however, the underlying problems it faces won’t save many, analysts say. The Jamestown Foundation believes that, firstly, there is a shortage of personnel in the industry in question. “The industry is experiencing a serious shortage of personnel. This gap is estimated at 400,000 workers, given that the total number of people employed in Russian defense enterprises is about two million people. Moreover, the Russian authorities were unable to remedy this situation throughout the 2010s, and the situation has worsened since then. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine that they will be able to effectively solve this problem in the foreseeable future.”

Shortages of needed personnel—combined with sanctions, the international community’s distrust of the reliability of Russian arms supplies, and fear of Western backlash against Moscow’s clients—seem to be affecting Russia’s military industry and production rates, even of weapons, in which Russia is considered a pioneer. such as Su-34, Tupolev Tu-160, Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS bombers, Ka-52 helicopters and Tornado MLRS missiles.

Russian losses so far

With Ukraine constantly asking for Leopard 2 tanks – from Germany and elsewhere – the importance of tanks in the war seems inexorably critical. Russia, according to data also published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), has lost more than half of its tanks in the war in Ukraine.

Washington Post and Wall Street Journal reports indicate that it may have lost 50% of its modern tanks, such as the T-72B3 and T-72B3M, and that its fleet of T-80BV/U tanks is two-thirds depleted. while the current Russian operational fleet of tanks is estimated at 1,800 units. According to IISS, another 5,000 tanks are projected to be stored in Moscow, most of which are of poor quality and many likely unusable. The same report states that Russia’s most advanced tank, the T-14 Armata, is still being tested.

“Industrial production continues but remains slow, forcing Moscow to rely on its old stockpiles of weapons,” IISS CEO John Chipman was quoted as saying by the Washington Post.

By the end of 2022, Russia has lost 75% of its heavy artillery, according to US and Ukrainian officials. However, officials, according to CNN, do not have a clear explanation. Russia may be cutting back on its artillery due to supply shortages, or it could be part of a wider tactical reassessment in the face of successful Ukrainian counterattacks.

According to the same report, U.S. officials said the sharp slowdown in artillery fire could indicate that protracted and intense fighting in Ukraine has also had a significant impact on Russian conventional arms supplies. In fact, a senior US military official told CNN that Russia has been forced to resort to 40-year-old artillery shells as its stock of new ammunition dwindles. For the US, the use of substandard munitions, as well as the Kremlin’s rapprochement with countries such as North Korea and Iran, have been a sign of the depletion of Russia’s weapons arsenal.

“We deliver on time and often earlier”

The Russian side is optimistic and, as it is written, does not expect serious blows to its military industry. In their public statements, the heads of manufacturing companies say that the Russian military machine is doing well.

Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov says that “Rostec enterprises involved in the implementation of government contracts are working almost around the clock, and their employees show dedication and understanding towards the increased workload,” according to the state news agency TASS.

Dmitry Medvedev says that Russia’s weapons cannot be stopped by Western weapons, noting that it is difficult to surpass Moscow in modern weapons, echoing Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly stated, according to Le Monde, that Russia is developing new types of weapons, including hypersonic ones, which, according to him words, can bypass all existing missile defense systems.

However, Denis Madurov, after hearing this from Putin, told Interfax last month, according to Newsweek, that a “significant” portion of the country’s weapons are being sent to the battlefields in Ukraine. “Their acquisition is our absolute priority, but even in these conditions we continue to cooperate with our partners from friendly countries and fulfill our obligations.”