Ukrainians began to believe they had won their winter war after overcoming repeated Russian bombings of energy facilities. But a devastating early Thursday missile strike, in which Moscow fired several of its formidable Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, was a stark reminder that, according to Financial Times analysis, the threat to cities far from the front lines is far from gone.

“It is wrong to think that they are done with their attacks on the population, they are only done with the campaign of missile attacks on the electricity infrastructure,” Ukraine’s head of national security Oleksiy Danilov told the FT. “This is not a war between soldiers. This is a war aimed at destroying critical infrastructure – that is, the supply of electricity, water and heating.

Russia fired 81 missiles, including six Kh-47 Kinzhal missiles, at targets in Ukraine. This was the first multiple hit from the front in more than three weeks. Three thermal power plants were damaged, and the Zaporozhye NPP temporarily lost the supply of electricity needed to cool its reactors.

Since late January, Ukraine’s electricity supply has begun to stabilize as the power grid became more resilient and an improved air defense system shot down most Russian missiles and combat drones. But on Thursday, only 38 of the 81 missiles were intercepted, and another eight were shot down by countermeasures. This is well below the 80 percent intercept level achieved by Ukrainian air defense forces earlier this year. Missiles destroyed were mostly subsonic cruise missiles and low-speed attack drones.

Dagger

None of the 25 high-velocity or ballistic missiles of various types, including Kinzhals, was shot down. The Ukrainian Air Force said that they do not have such an opportunity. Moscow is believed to have used air-launched Kinzhal missiles against Ukraine in the past, but never to this extent.

It was unusual, Justin Bronk, a researcher at the Royal Combined Arms Institute in London, told the FT because the Dagger is a rare and highly sophisticated ballistic missile designed to outperform the most advanced air defense systems. It can fly at 10 times the speed of sound.

“This is one of the few specialized systems that, for example, in the event of a conflict with NATO, Russia will have to be careful about how it decides to use them,” Mr. Bronk said, adding that Russia probably had everything “ dozens of such systems. her arsenal.

A Ukrainian military intelligence official said Russia launched the invasion in February last year with about 50 Kinzhals in stock and sent about 15 against Ukraine before strikes on Thursday. Ukrainian officials said the Russian strikes highlighted the need for better, longer-range air defense systems.

The attack is not a change in Russian tactics, said Yuriy Ignat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force. Last year, Moscow forces launched several hundred Iskander ballistic missiles, as well as other hypersonic missiles such as the powerful Kh-22 with a 950kg warhead and the well-known S-300, which are commonly used to intercept air defenses. But the use of so many valuable Kinzhal missiles is puzzling.

Possible explanations

According to Mr Bronk, there are three possible explanations. First, Russia may have been trying to overcome air defenses at a certain point in Ukraine, although he pointed out that the Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which were used in much greater numbers, had already proven that they were not easy to counter.

Secondly, stocks of other ballistic missiles were very small. A Ukrainian intelligence official said that Moscow only has about 90 Iskander-M, 45 Iskander-K and 36 Kh-22 missiles. Ukrainian officials believe that Western sanctions are seriously limiting Russia’s ability to produce missiles, although Mr. Bronk said Moscow can still produce six Iskander-M missiles a month. “Thursday’s batch is equivalent to what they can produce in a month to replenish supplies,” a Ukrainian intelligence official said.

The third reason, according to Mr. Bronk, was the “strange as always distribution of weapons among target groups” that Russia used to strike Ukrainian positions or infrastructure where smaller weapons would be effective. This can partly be explained by the fact that decisions are made in Moscow, far from the front line.

Ukrainian officials said the strikes highlighted the need for better, longer-range air defense systems and faster deployment of those the West has already promised. Ukraine’s air defense has improved significantly over the past year thanks to new Western equipment and better techniques, but it still lacks surface-to-air capabilities to intercept fast-moving ballistic missiles.

Ukraine has reportedly received one of two Patriot air defense systems promised by the US and Germany, but it has yet to enter service. It is also expecting several Patriot launchers from the Netherlands. The Patriot is the most advanced medium-range air defense system the West has to offer, but it hasn’t been tested against the Kinzhal. A similar Samp-T system promised by France and Italy has not yet arrived.

“We need guns, guns and more guns,” Mr. Danilov said. “Russia will continue to increase its aggression if the world remains silent.”

Source: Financial Times.