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It all started on Friday morning when her imminent departure from the opposition coalition in Turkey Meral Axener, leader of the Good Party (Iga), said.

The so-called National Alliance is expected to announce its single candidate today. to the presidential elections. The heads of the five remaining parties in the alliance are expected to meet again at 13:00 Greek time and shortly thereafter announce the nomination of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the Republican People’s Party of Kemal (CHP).

A split within the opposition has led the ISI to denounce coalition members for serving Kılıçdaroğlu’s personal ambitions.

Nicknamed “Turkish Gandhi” due to his ascetic appearance and glasses, Kiliçdaroglu is credited with his party’s recent election successes in the municipalities of Ankara and Istanbul. But analysts are wondering if the 71-year-old has the potential to defeat Erdogan, with only 40% of the population satisfied with his performance as the official leader of the opposition.

By contrast, Istanbul’s dynamic 52-year-old mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, who ended 25 years of dominance in the city by the ruling AKP party, is seen as a much better candidate. However, in December last year, Imamoglu was sentenced to 31 months in prison for insulting members of the election commission. He appealed the decision, which he considers a joke, but if the case is settled before the election and it turns out that he cannot stand, it will leave the opposition without a livelihood.

The leaders of the six coalition parties met on Thursday to find a way out of the impasse. These squabbles did not allow the coalition to agree on a common candidate. Aksener said he nominated Istanbul or Ankara Mayor Mansour Yavas as the opposition’s presidential candidate to counter the stubborn rejection of coalition partners who pushed for Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy. The crisis in the ranks of the opposition caused a sharp drop in the Turkish stock market index, which sank 3.9% immediately after Aksener’s speech on television.

For his part, the Turkish president accused the opposition parties of disorganization, urging voters to realize that these parties are not capable of governing the country. A day before the opposition leaders’ meeting, Erdogan dismissed any scenario of postponing the elections due to the earthquake, stressing that they would take place as usual on May 14.

Aksener does not agree with the decision to oppose Kilicdaroglu to Erdogan in the elections. He considers Imamoglou or Yavasa to be more suitable.

The election is expected to be the most difficult in a long political career for Turkey’s president, who this week announced an acceleration of a recovery program after last month’s devastating earthquake and after criticizing the state apparatus for inefficiency.

The opposition has failed to deliver its message and policy proposals on critical economic and foreign policy issues, Bekir Agirdir, director of research firm Konda, explained to Bloomberg. Instead of gaining the upper hand due to problems in overcoming the humanitarian crisis caused by the earthquake, the opposition in Turkey remains unchanged. “The ongoing infighting within the opposition over the identity of the presidential candidate, combined with its inability to clarify its vision on critical issues, dangerously reduces its chances,” said Agirdir, whose firm correctly predicted the results of the 2019 municipal elections when Ekrem Imamoglu won the Istanbul municipality. Polls show that opposition numbers are stagnating or even declining. In early 2022, he was clearly leading the way in voter intent, but in recent months, the public seems to be back on Erdogan again.

Analysts believe that in order to win, the opposition must rally around a common candidate capable of attracting votes from the pro-Kurdish HDP. The party has played a pivotal role in the electoral game in the past, although it now faces a possible injunction over its alleged ties to the outlawed Kurdish rebel group PKK.