Why did Lukashenka go to China?
On Thursday, March 2, Alexander Lukashenko’s three-day visit to China ended. He met Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Chinese leader Xi Jinping and declared his full support for China’s “peace plan” for Ukraine. And Belarusian Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov said that the total economic effect of the Belarusian-Chinese agreements reached during the visit is estimated at more than US$3.5 billion. The visit to Beijing can be considered a great success for Lukashenka, who has been in international isolation for two years. What does he expect from China and what interest does this country have in Belarus, which is under Western sanctions? DW talked about this with experts from different countries.
“Compensated for toxicity with control on the territory of Belarus”
Former Belarusian diplomat and political analyst Pavel Slyunkin considers the visit to China to be the main achievement of Lukashenka in foreign policy since the summer of 2020. “This is one of the main trends of the last three months – the activation of foreign policy,” he recalls. “Alexander Lukashenko also made an official visit to Zimbabwe, was in the United Arab Emirates, plans to go to Iran.”
Temur Umarov, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment, points out that Lukashenko’s visit to China is important for Lukashenko due to the isolation in which Belarus finds itself: “The stability of the political regime depended on Moscow’s support. Lukashenko’s trip to China is an attempt to demonstrate that he is not really as isolated as he might appear to someone from the inside or the outside.”
Pavel Slyunkin adds that Lukashenka’s recent international visits are a demonstration that claims of international illegitimacy are exaggerated. “We can talk about illegitimacy for Western countries, for the Western world. But for the rest of the world – 2.5 years after the start of the political crisis – Lukashenko managed to compensate for his toxicity with effective control, which he exercises on the territory of Belarus”, believe.
The political analyst explains that Lukashenka was counting on Xi Jinping’s visit to Minsk in 2020, but that it was postponed due to the pandemic: “Then the visit was expected for 2021, but it was postponed for various reasons – covid, insufficiently stable situation in Belarus. 2022, a war began, in which Belarus became a co-aggressor, and there was no readiness to come from the Chinese country.”
And in 2023, Lukashenka was received in Beijing. “It cannot be denied that after 2020, economic, trade and investment activity on the Chinese side was suspended, mainly because it was not clear how the situation would develop – both in Belarus and in its relations with Western countries. time passes, Lukashenka retains power within the country, Chinese interests have not disappeared, and China will adapt to the current situation and pursue its interests in Belarus, based on new conditions,” said Pavel Slyunkin.
Potassium and the Belarusian-Polish border
Dmitry Kruk, senior researcher at the BEROC Research Center (Kyiv), emphasizes that the economic significance of the visit is an order of magnitude less than the political one. Despite that, it exists. “For Belarus, the issue of access to external loans, commercial capital is relevant – not only in Russia. This is probably the best support for weakening political dependence on Russia,” he explains.
The economist suggests that the country is seeking solutions for potassium fertilizers, which are under sanction. “I think that the idea of receiving some kind of sponsorship from China to build maritime logistics for the supply of potassium fertilizers through the same Russia could have matured”, says Dmitry Kruk. “Lukashenko really needs potash exports to make a living. overall volume, but it also has some meaning.
Another problem that, as the expert suggests, can be addressed in the negotiations is the stability of Chinese rail exports of goods. “They go by train, mainly through Brest. Therefore, the question remains: could the threats to close the Polish border affect exports?” he argues.
In addition, the Belarusian authorities would be interested in reviving the “Big Stone” – an economic zone near Minsk with tax breaks for Chinese companies, on which they pinned high hopes until 2020. “The Chinese saw this as an experimental platform with further promotion for the EU. And since the possibilities for trade with the EU have almost disappeared, the idea of \u200b\u200bthe Big Stone in the previous model has become obsolete”, explains Dmitry Kruk.
Is the visit related to Russia’s war in Ukraine?
Markus Reisner, military historian, duty officer of the General Staff of the Austrian army suggests that “Lukashenko may be trying to prevent his country from participating in this conflict through some kind of explanation in Beijing”.
“We generally assume that Lukashenka and Putin get along very well. At least that’s what analysts tend to say. The question is whether this is true. Remember the mass protests in Belarus that were suppressed. And what will that mean if they do? Belarus suddenly has to enter the war? Will the population agree with this, or will they protest, as we have seen before? I think Lukashenko is trying to explain his situation to China and hopes that he will continue to support him in this conflict,” said Reisner .
Thomas Eder, an expert at the Austrian Institute of International Policy, says that it would be interesting for China to discuss with Lukashenka what Russia’s plans are, how the war will continue. He recalls the popular phrase: “China demonstrates pro-Russian neutrality.” But he adds: “If you read the discussions among Chinese foreign policy experts, you can see that a radical escalation now is not at all in China’s interests.”
However, experts do not consider Lukashenka’s visit to China to be just a visit by the “Ambassador of Russia”. “You shouldn’t underestimate his independence, he is a person who knows how to balance between Russia and many other countries in the world,” recalls Temur Umarov. “He repeatedly balanced between Russia and Europe until 2020 and is now trying to balance between Russia and other countries, although today it is, of course, much more difficult.
Source: DW
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