Exactly one year after Russian invasion V Ukraine, China is at the center of two conflicting narratives. In particular, Beijing presented on Friday a 12-point proposal to cease hostilities, while the West has expressed concern about the possibility of more direct involvement of the Chinese side in the war.

China’s proposal for a ceasefire was met with skepticism by the US, with US Foreign Secretary Anthony Blinken citing reports that Beijing was “considering providing military support” to Moscow. In fact, a recent publication by the German magazine Der Spiegel says that the Russian army is negotiating with a Chinese company for the supply of kamikaze drones.

For its part, China flatly rejected the US claims, citing “nonsense” and lack of evidence.

In this context, the two analysts spoke to K about what Beijing’s next steps might be, as well as what the international community should expect in the near future.

Could China supply weapons to Moscow?

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Beijing’s aid to Russia, an important strategic ally, has been largely economic and diplomatic, with Moscow forced to turn to Iran rather than China for critical weapons.

“Beijing chose to maintain a balance,” the professor tells K. Zhigang Zheng from Lancaster University in the UK. “Russia is a strategic ally of China, but Ukraine is also an important trading partner.”

On the other hand, analysts say that the fact that the US is talking about the possibility of China providing military assistance to Russia implies that there is reliable information to support this claim.

But will Beijing withstand the consequences of such a decision?

Fear of Western sanctions

“If we look closely at China’s trade relations with Europe and the US, we see that they are much stronger than relations with Moscow,” Zeng notes. “Thus, Beijing would lose much more than it would gain if it supported Russia more directly.”

According to him, the strengthening of Moscow at the military level will have serious consequences for China, as it will entail the imposition of Western sanctions that will seriously affect its economy, which has been hit hard in recent years.

“I don’t believe that China will send military aid to Russia anytime soon,” she stressed. Yun SunAnalyst for China and East Asia at the Stimson Center in Washington.

“But if the war continues and takes the form of a more direct threat to Russia and its territories, then everything can change,” he emphasizes.

What do Beijing’s calls for peace mean?

The Chinese ceasefire proposal comes just days after Beijing issued a lengthy statement it called the “Global Security Initiative.”

“China is now more willing to call for peace than it was a year ago, even proposing concrete actions to achieve it,” Sun says.

But how to explain Beijing’s intention to take on a more active role as a peacekeeper?

Beijing ‘considers’ Russian defeat likely

“No one predicted that the war would last this long, and China realized that Russia was not as strong as expected,” Zheng explains. “No one expected such a significant shift in the balance of power between Ukraine and Russia.”

He says China wants to do more this year to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to choose the path of peace. This, he notes, is due to the fact that Russia no longer has the upper hand in the war, and it is not in China’s interest to support a country that is likely to fail.

“Beijing is now also considering the possibility that Russia will not win the war,” Zheng says. “The conversation turns to how Moscow failed.”

Wang Yi’s Restrained Attitude

It is worth noting that last week, special attention was paid to the importance of Sino-Russian relations in the context of a visit to Moscow by high-ranking Chinese diplomat Wang Yi.

And he met with Putin, but even in this case he was more restrained in his statements, stating, in particular, that “the relations between China and Russia are not directed against any third party, although they are not subject to pressure from third parties.”

For his part, Putin said that the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Russia is expected, and also spoke about “new horizons” in terms of cooperation between the two countries.

It is recalled that Wang Yi had previously met with Anthony Blinken on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, which, according to American data, “failed.”

Possibility of “underground” approach

Since China thus “plays a major role” in two diametrically opposed narratives regarding the development of the war in Ukraine, the economic risks that direct military assistance to Moscow would have on Beijing should be taken seriously, while at the same time the importance of Western warnings should not be underestimated. .

And while analysts say this scenario is unlikely, there are those who point out that Beijing will continue to weigh the balance between risk and reward, perhaps opting for more indirect and underground ways to support Russia.