United States accused this week of China that he plans to supply her with weapons Russia to strengthen her in attacking her Ukrainianwhich Beijing denies.

If true, it would change the course of the year-long conflict, according to analysts cited by AFP.

Why did Washington make this accusation?

Since the beginning of the war, China has offered Russian President Vladimir Putin financial and diplomatic support, avoiding sending weapons or any overt military intervention.

Chinese state-owned companies have been selling drones and other equipment to Russia and Ukraine, but Moscow has been forced to turn to Iran for needed weapons such as fighter jets.

North Korea has also supplied Russia with missiles and artillery shells, according to Washington.

And the United States is now worried that Beijing is doing the same. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on Monday reiterated his warning after saying on Sunday that China plans to supply arms to Russia after meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of a security conference in Munich.

“We talked about the war that Russia is waging and that we have concerns about China planning to supply arms to Russia,” he told CBS.

Anthony Blinken did not provide evidence to support this accusation, which is part of confidential information released by Washington to prevent or disrupt Russia’s military plans.

“The fact that Anthony Blinken chose to go public with these concerns shows that the United States has reliable information,” said Richard McGregor, an East Asia fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin called it “false information.”

Why is the United States concerned?

An influx of weapons from China will “shuffle the deck” of the war in Ukraine, says Mick Ryan, a retired Australian military general.

“This is an industrial systems war. Russia is currently lagging behind the West. If China intervenes, all the advantages that Ukraine has due to Western industrial prowess will disappear in one fell swoop. Chinese munitions would make life difficult for Ukrainians, be it artillery munitions, precision-guided missiles, or long-range weapons that Russia doesn’t have.”

Because from the very beginning of the Russian invasion, Russia has struggled to muster enough combat personnel, ammunition and weapons, which explains the Russian rut against the Ukrainian resistance. This situation forced Vladimir Putin to resort to mass conscription, mercenaries and imports.

Meanwhile, Ukraine managed to stop the Russian advance and eventually recovered. But some analysts believe the fighting is on the wane as each side attempts to pool resources and seek to secure a decisive advantage as spring approaches.

Why is China intervening?

Chinese military commentator Song Zhongping said that China would not supply arms to Russia, stressing that political, trade and military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing had strengthened before the war in Ukraine and that this trend would continue.

“China will not listen to US demands. He will strengthen his cooperation with Russia in accordance with his national will and national security considerations.”

Many analysts believe that the stakes are higher and that Ukraine is turning into a Cold War proxy war.

According to Alexey Muravyov, Professor of Strategic and Security Studies at Curtin University in Perth, Australia, “the war in Ukraine is a critical moment for the international security environment, for the world order.”

An arms export decision would be a “huge step” for China, exposing it to Western sanctions, burning its remaining bridges with Washington, and undermining Beijing’s relations with Europe.

However, the prospect of Russia’s defeat, according to Alexei Muravyov, worries Beijing. In this case, “China will be left alone,” he says. “Russia is the only major power backing China.”

Conversely, a Russian victory would mean a “strategic defeat for the United States” and fuel President Xi Jinping’s assertion that the West is in decline, an idea shaken by Russia’s impasse in Ukraine.

According to the professor, China will try to play the role of a balancer in the conflict, taking a position exactly in the middle between risk and reward: supplying weapons through state-owned companies, through North Korea or the Wagner group, and not directly into the Russian armed forces.

“I think their approach will be more underground,” concludes Alexey Muravyov.

^{Sources: AFP, APE-MPE.}