At least twenty-four hours before the expiration of one year from Russian invasion of Ukraine, Joe Biden And Vladimir Putin they went head-to-head with two landmark speeches outlining diametrically opposed strategies and views of the international order.

The very disturbing news of the day came from a speech by the Russian president before two legislative bodies, the political, military and religious leadership of his country. Saying that the United States is seeking to turn a “local” conflict in Ukraine into a global one, Putin announced Russia’s withdrawal from the new START strategic nuclear arms control treaty. The agreement, signed in 2010 by Barack Obama and then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, is the only major arms control treaty that still links the two nuclear superpowers.

In addition, Vladimir Putin warned that Russia would continue nuclear testing if the Americans made the first move, and announced that he had signed a decree a week ago to commission new ground-based nuclear devices, without giving details. Otherwise, he argued that Russia was forced to take military action against its will in Ukraine because the Zelensky government, backed by the Americans, planned to attack Crimea, while accusing the “Western elites” of aiming to “destroy Russia.” “.

Frontal conflict between two leaders with important speeches almost a year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The answer came hours later when Joe Biden addressed a large crowd of Poles gathered around the Royal Castle in Warsaw. The American president assured that the United States and its allies “do not plan to attack Russia and do not consider the Russian people their enemy.” He sent a stern warning to Moscow, emphasizing that “NATO Article 5”, which provides for collective defense in the event of an attack on a member of the Alliance, is “unshakable” and any attack on one will be considered an attack on all.

Coming from Kiev, where he toured downtown a day earlier with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Joe Biden acknowledged that “we have hard, bitter days ahead of us,” admitting there is no prospect of ending the war anytime soon. But he showed optimism, stressing that over the past time, “democracies around the world have become stronger, and authoritarian regimes have become weaker,” and NATO, contrary to Putin’s expectations a year ago, “today is more united and stronger than ever.” “

Referring to his Polish audience’s historical sensitivity to the policy of appeasing Hitler that the French and British had for a time followed, Joe Biden emphasized that “we cannot appease dictators, we must resist them.” He reiterated that America and its allies will continue to strengthen Ukraine “for as long as necessary” and expressed confidence that “Russia cannot win” in this conflict. Finally, he said that this week the US and its allies will announce a new package of sanctions against Moscow.

Closer to Russia and China

Responding to US President Joe Biden’s highly symbolic visits to Kiev and Warsaw, Russia and China reaffirmed the stability of their alliance, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to deliver a major Russian-invasion anniversary speech next Friday to present his vision for peace at the Ukraine. Chinese Communist Party Politburo member and prominent foreign policy official Wang Yi has been in Moscow since yesterday. Wang Yi met with Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, who said that relations with China are an immediate priority for Moscow, while expressing his support on Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong. For his part, Yi stressed that the alliance between Russia and China “is unshakable and will withstand all tests of the international situation.” The Chinese official will meet today with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, possibly with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Full speed ahead for great Russia

Vladimir Putin’s desire for an even bigger Russia does not appear to be limited to the four Ukrainian regions annexed, at least on paper, by Moscow last September. Journalists from a group of international media outlets, including Yahoo News and the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, have published a document about Belarus being swallowed up by its big neighbor by 2030, claiming it echoes decisions made by Putin.

Strategic Goals

Titled “Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation in Belarus,” the 17-page document in question was drawn up in the Kremlin, according to the journalists who discovered it, in the summer of 2021. neighboring country.

Its authors distinguish between short-term goals until 2022, medium-term goals with a horizon of 2025, and long-term goals set for 2030, when integration processes are expected to be completed.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, relations between the two neighboring countries remained warm, especially after Alexander Lukashenko came to power in 1994, who remains in power to this day. In 1999, Moscow and Minsk signed an agreement with the ultimate goal of creating a “Union of States”, but little came of it. Although he has always maintained good relations with Moscow, which provided him with cheap energy, Lukashenka until recently maintained a balance with the West and Ukraine. It is no coincidence that the post-crisis Ukrainian peace agreements of 2014 were signed in Minsk, Belarus.

The situation changed dramatically after the 2020 elections, when Lukashenko was accused of fraud, launched a campaign of repression against the opposition, clashed with the West and was saved by Putin’s support. In return, he allowed Russia to use his territory to invade Ukraine in February 2022.

Cross-border cooperation

A Western official, who spoke to Yahoo News on condition of anonymity, said the document in question was drafted by the Kremlin’s Office of Cross-Border Cooperation, set up in October 2018 to advance Russia’s strategic interests in the Baltic republics, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova.

If the union with Belarus takes place, the Russian Federation will in the future border Lithuania and Poland, two member countries of NATO and the European Union.