The greatest enemy of economic development is war. If the planet plunges further into global conflict, the hopes for our economy and our very survival could burn out. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has just set the Doomsday Clock to 90 seconds before midnight. The biggest global economic loser in 2022 was Ukraine, whose economy collapsed by 35% according to the International Monetary Fund. The war there may soon end and economic recovery begin, but that depends on whether Ukraine comes to terms with its position as a victim of the US-Russia proxy war that erupted in 2014. If the war between the representatives does not end soon, Ukraine will face an ominous future. Lessons must be learned from Afghanistan’s horrific experience so that it does not turn into a perennial tragedy. It can also refer to US proxy wars in Vietnam, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Iraq, Syria, and Libya.

Since 1979, the US has armed Mujahideen (Islamic militants) to attack the Soviet-backed government of Afghanistan. As President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski later explained, the US goal was to provoke the Soviet Union into intervening to lead it into a costly war. That Afghanistan would be a collateral loss did not bother American leaders. The Soviet military invaded Afghanistan in 1979, as requested by the US, and fought throughout the 1980s, while US-backed militants created al-Qaeda in the 1980s and the Taliban in the early 1980s -s Afghanistan to fight al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The US war continued for another 20 years until they finally withdrew in 2021.

Afghanistan is in ruins today. While the US has spent more than $2 trillion on military spending, the country has become impoverished. GDP in 2021 was below $400 per capita!

The proxy war in Ukraine began nine years ago when the US government supported the overthrow of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych’s sin for the United States was his attempt to keep Ukraine neutral despite the US desire to expand NATO to include Ukraine (and Georgia). America’s goal was for NATO countries to encircle Russia in the Black Sea region. The United States has been massively arming and financing Ukraine since 2014. The US is overlooking two harsh political realities in Ukraine. First, the country is deeply divided ethnically and politically between anti-Russian nationalists in western Ukraine and ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Second, NATO expansion into Ukraine crosses Russia’s red line. Russia will fight to the end and, if necessary, escalate the situation to prevent the United States from integrating Ukraine into NATO.

He must understand his plight as a victim of a proxy war between the US and Russia that broke out in 2014.

In late 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin made three demands to the United States: that Ukraine remain neutral and withdraw from NATO, that Crimea remain part of Russia, and that Donbass become autonomous in accordance with the Minsk II Accords. The Biden-Sullivan-Nuland team rejected NATO talks on expansion, eight years after the same group backed the ouster of Yanukovych. In March 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared to understand Ukraine’s plight as a victim of a proxy war between the US and Russia. He publicly declared that Ukraine would become a neutral country and demanded security guarantees. He also publicly acknowledged that Crimea and Donbas need special treatment. However, the US blocked the peace process.

The basis for peace today is clear. Ukraine will be a neutral country that will not be part of NATO. Crimea will remain the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, as it has been since 1783. A practical solution will be found for Donbass, such as territorial division, autonomy or a ceasefire line. Most importantly, hostilities will cease, Russian troops will be withdrawn from Ukraine, and Ukraine’s sovereignty will be guaranteed by the UN Security Council and other states.

Above all, the government and people of Ukraine will signal to Russia and the US that Ukraine no longer refuses to be a proxy war battlefield. In the face of deep internal divisions, Ukrainians on both sides of the ethnic divide will seek peace rather than believing that an outside force will save them from having to compromise.

Mr. Jeffrey Sachs is an economist and professor in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.