The victory-overthrow of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU), but probably the preservation of the current three-party coalition (SPD, Greens, Left) shows the forecast of the first result of repeated corrective elections in Berlin.

The elections are being held as the results of the September 2021 elections were declared invalid due to “massive and serious irregularities” in the voting process.

According to the exit poll of the first channel of the German public television ARD, the CDU wins the elections to the State House of Representatives with 27.5%, increasing its percentage by 9.5 points compared to the 2021 elections. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) loses 2.9 points and is limited to 18.5%, just like the Greens, who have lost only 0.4 points since the first election.

The left is down 1.4 points to 12.5%, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has not confirmed the polls that gave it a percentage of more than 15% and has remained at 9%, but has gained one point since 2021 of the year. The Liberals (FDP) remain reportedly outside the local parliament as they have now shrunk from 7.2% in the previous election to 4.5%.

Despite a clear victory for the CDU, which recorded the best result since 2011, it is still unclear whether the party’s candidate Kai Wegner will succeed in becoming the mayor-governor of Berlin, replacing the social democrat Franziska Ghiffey. The losers, the SPD and the Greens, with 18.5% each, together with the left (12.5%), gain about 48% and can, even with a small majority, continue to rule the German capital state.

For the CDU, a coalition with either the SPD or the Greens is numerically possible. Mr. Wegner himself said that it was “a time for change” in Berlin and stressed that he would like to take the opportunity to negotiate with potential partners.

Voter turnout reached 62% compared to 75% in the 2021 elections.

Source: RES-IPE