On December 30, 2022, an armed motorcyclist was killed. Sinan Atesparamilitary leader Gray wolves. The death of Ates, 38, has led some analysts to warn against a new turbulent period in Turkish politics. These analysts believe the assassination could have unforeseen consequences for Turkey’s upcoming elections, and the country’s political world, including President Tayyip Erdogan, is closely following the development of the investigation, according to a posting on intelnews.org.

The Gray Wolves – or the Idealist Foundation for Education and Culture, as the organization is officially called – is the paramilitary wing of the Nationalist Action Movement (NAM), the dominant far-right political force in Turkey. The MHP maintains an authoritarian, anti-Western stance and vehemently opposes any reconciliation between the Turkish state and national minorities such as the Kurds. It attracts ultra-conservative voters, mostly men over 35. The Gray Wolves act as a strike force for the MHP, often engaging in bloody riots against Kurds, leftists and other social forces resisting the Turkish far right. Known for their masculine outlook and aggressive behavior, gray wolves recruit mostly working-class males in their 20s and 30s. MHP and Gray Wolves are really two sides of the same coin.

In 2015, the MHP made an election deal with Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). The parliamentary coalition, known as the People’s Alliance, marked the formalization of a long informal partnership between the two parties that dates back to 2007. The People’s Alliance has played a key role in maintaining the AKP’s dominance in political life despite President Erdogan’s declining popularity. in recent years. Currently, the AKP is directly dependent on the parliamentary support of the MHP, since the presidential party does not have a majority in the National Assembly. The Gray Wolves, for their part, tend to be more radical than their parent political formation and are nominally supportive of Erdogan despite seeing him as too soft and liberal.

None of the representatives of the MIR party expressed condolences in connection with his death, despite the fact that he was Bakhtseli’s “favorite child”.

The PAP, despite its fantasies, has always been the product of an awkward alliance between various far-right organizations. Its followers may be socially conservative or extreme nationalists, as well as followers of puritanical Sunni Islam or neo-fascists. When the MHP accepted Erdogan’s proposal to create a People’s Alliance in 2017, many factions in the MHP expressed strong disagreement about joining the president. The dissidents founded the Igi (Good Party) party with a reformist-conservative ideological label. Igi became a formidable opponent of the PAP, gaining significant support. As expected, the conflict between the MHP and Igi passed to the Gray Wolves, dozens of members left the organization. At the same time, the charismatic Ates, appointed head of the organization in 2019, remained silent.

However, in 2020, rumors began to circulate that Ates was preparing to leave the MHP to join Igi. If that were to happen, veteran MHP leader Devlet Bahceli would be in a particularly difficult position. Rumors of Ates’ departure intensified in April 2020 after he announced that he was stepping down as chairman of the Gray Wolves. However, Ates retained his party identity in the MHP and did not resign from the Wolves. However, many believed that his departure from the leadership of the Gray Wolves was only the first step towards his joining the Igi. Everyone agrees that Ates would have jumped to Igi if he had not been killed. After his death, some of his closest advisers reported that he had already negotiated with Igi. So far, the Ankara police have arrested 15 people in this case. All of them have close ties to the MHP or the Gray Wolves. At the same time, none of the representatives of the party issued a statement of condolences in connection with the death of Ates, although the deceased was Bakhtseli’s “favorite child”.

But was it a political assassination? The Gray Wolves are not exclusively a political organization, having gained great economic power in both the legal and illegal sectors of the economy. Some of their illegal activities involve drug trafficking, extortion, prostitution and human trafficking on a large scale.

Ates’ assassination could have huge political implications ahead of Turkey’s May elections. Many believe that the MHP split, the creation of Iga, and the ensuing feud caused the intention to vote for Bahceli’s party to fall below 4%. The party won 14% of the vote in the 2015 elections. The weakening of the MHP does not serve President Erdogan’s plans to stay in power. For years, the MHP has faced criticism and irony for its role as “the political lifeblood for Erdogan.” However, this stimulus injection no longer seems to be effective, and Ates’ death could deal the final blow to the far-right party.