The term “spring offensive” will be heard a lot in the coming weeks of the war in Ukraine. In the traditional military sense, this is when armies try to gain momentum after taking advantage of difficult winter conditions to resupply, according to the BBC.

It is true that the intensity of the fighting has decreased in typically cold conditions. However, all signs seem to point to a coming Russian counterattack.

Moscow mobilized hundreds of thousands of people and increased the production of weapons and ammunition.

Kyiv expects major strikes from the east and south as early as February 24, the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. So, if Moscow launches another attack, what will it try to do?

Bahamut

It is the eastern city that has garnered all the attention due to the successive conflicting claims about who controls it.

While Kyiv does not hint at a tactical retreat. It claims that the Russians record about 500 casualties a day, carrying out ruthless attacks. Ukraine estimates that its own losses are not so great.

Regular Russian forces appear to have been replaced by Wagner group mercenaries who continue to encircle the city. So far, Ukrainian troops continue to hold it.

In the event of the fall of the city, it is expected that the invasion forces will move towards the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. This will allow Moscow to capture the entire eastern region of Donetsk, which is one of its main and official goals.

But this will require more than 10,360 square kilometers. At a time when Russia is making small and costly gains, the Ukrainians will have to seriously beef up their forces or they will be in for a surprise.

Bulendar

After a failed attempt last November, Russian troops launched attacks on the small town of Vukhledar, also in the Donetsk region.

It is located southeast of today’s battlefield and is important to Moscow for two reasons: First, it is close to the only railway line connecting the annexed Crimean peninsula with Russian-controlled territories to the east. Secondly, Ukrainian forces attack Russian supply echelons from there.

Buledar is similar to Bahamut in that it has more symbolic than military significance for the Russians. Ukraine is convinced that Moscow will achieve its two main goals as quickly as possible.

It is believed that along with the capture of the entire Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions), Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to expand the land corridor he seized between Crimea and Russia.

Capturing Buledar would certainly help in this direction, but at the same time it would be a more valuable move for the Kremlin in terms of propaganda. The military milestones help the Kremlin justify its “special military operation” inside Russia and also appease critics.

It could also give President Putin a political outlet if he can hold on to the territories he seizes.

Zaporozhye

Away from the eastern front, the line of conflict south of the city of Zaporozhye is another Kyiv concern.

The concern is that Russian troops may move north towards the cities of Origiv and Pokrovsk (the latter is located in the Donetsk region).

If this happens, it will move the firing positions of longer-range Ukrainian missiles that could strike deep into the Russian-controlled land corridor further south.

Since American HIMARS have a range of up to 80 km, and it is expected to reach 120 km, the occupied cities of Melitopol and Tokmok are conveniently within Ukraine’s reach.

Moscow also fears a possible Ukrainian offensive against Melitopol. In the past, Kyiv has spoken of the city’s importance, saying that its liberation would allow Ukraine to cut off Russia’s supply lines to Crimea.

However, the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzny, admitted that his troops did not have the necessary equipment for such an attack.

Kharkiv

Despite being less than 50 kilometers from the Russian border, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the northeast has never fallen under Moscow’s control.

Like many regions, it has been largely mistreated due to Russian attempts to wrest it from Kyiv’s control. The population of Kharkov was subjected throughout the winter to near-constant rocket attacks and subsequent power outages.

Authorities say that although enemy numbers have not increased, the Russians have begun bombing civilian areas more frequently.

Some local military officials said they “wouldn’t be surprised” if the Russians made another attack, especially in low temperatures.

While there is no guarantee that Russia will be able to capture the city it failed to infiltrate last year, its capture would provide a significant strategic advantage.

An invading force could blockade the city from Kyiv, which could prevent Ukrainian forces south of Kharkov from retreating towards the capital.

Kyiv

The capital of Ukraine is still the main prize of Russia. However, we are not in 2022.

Last year, joint military exercises between Belarus and Russia turned into an offensive against Kyiv, with Moscow using its ally as a base for its invasion.

Earlier this year, there were fears of a repeat of history when both countries announced they were resuming exercises, this time in the form of “defensive” air exercises north of Ukraine.

Belarus denied that it had plans to join the invasion. Moscow denied claims that it tried to force him.

Now both the West and Ukraine seem to agree that there is no information to suggest that the capital may be under the threat it faced last year. Moreover, Russia used its best trained forces in its first attempt to overthrow the Ukrainian government.

“We don’t see formed strike groups capable of reaching Kyiv,” said outgoing Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov.

“Besides, it is impossible to understand Kyiv in principle. It’s a big city of four million people, ready to defend itself.”

If Russia does launch a large-scale offensive and gain momentum, Reznikov’s successor may have a different opinion.

Source: BBC